GLENN McFARLANE RATES THE COX PLATE FIELD
1. BLACK HEART BART
Trainer: Lindsey Smith; Jockey: Brad Rawiller; Barrier: 11; Odds: $21
Macca says: The veteran turned back the clock in the Underwood Stakes before holding off all but Cape Of Good Hope in the Caulfield Stakes. Still, the nine-year-old would have to produce another career peak to win here.
2. AVILIUS
Trainer: James Cummings; Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy; Barrier: 7; Odds: $8
Macca says: Ran fourth in this race last year when James Cummings was using it as a pathway through to a Melbourne Cup. This time the Cox Plate has been his main mission. Had a slight setback on the weekend, but proved his fitness with a strong gallop at Flemington on Tuesday morning. A serious chance.
3. KLUGER
Trainer: Tomokazu Takano; Jockey: Tommy Berry; Barrier: 9; Odds: $15
Macca says: Underestimate the Japanese horses at your peril. While the attention has been on Lys Gracieux, we shouldn't forget Kluger's two performances in Sydney in the autumn. His second to champion mare Winx in the Queen Elizabeth (beaten only 1.5 lengths) shows he is a serious racehorse and can feature with the right run.
4. HARLEM
Trainers: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig; Jockey: Dwayne Dunn; Barrier: 2; Odds: $51
Macca says: Seasoned campaigner who has excelled in the past two autumns, winning back-to-back Australian Cups at huge odds. The Lindsay Park team has set him for this race. The way he got to the line behind stablemate Cape Of Good Hope at Caulfield was good. He'll be silly odds again, and can be competitive.
5. HOMESMAN
Trainer: Liam Howley; Jockey: Ben Melham; Barrier: 16; Odds: $17
Macca says: By their own lofty standards, it has been a relatively quiet spring so far for the Williams team. But that can change in a heartbeat. The camp is buoyant about Homesman's chances of winning their first Cox
Plate. It won't be easy from the draw. He was luckless in the Underwood. Not sure what to make of his sixth behind Cape Of Good Hope in the Caulfield Stakes, but the Williams team hasn't lost faith.
6. KINGS WILL DREAM
Trainer: Chris Waller; Jockey: Hugh Bowman; Barrier: 17; Odds: $21
Macca says: The fact Kings Will Dream is even running here — and rated a winning chance — reads like a miracle. He broke down in this race last year and almost died. His Turnbull Stakes win over the likes of Finche, Hartnell and Mystic Journey was a cracker, even if the draw here has dampened expectations a little. Imagine the storyline if Waller and Hugh Bowman combine for a fifth straight Cox Plate.
7. TE AKAU SHARK
Trainer: Jamie Richards; Jockey: Opie Bosson; Barrier: 18; Odds: $15
Macca says: The exciting Kiwi has a turn of foot and X-factor quality. That's why the Moonee Valley committee elevated him ahead of other seasoned performers such as Humidor and Gailo Chop. Hasn't yet won a Group 1, though just missed when second to Kolding in the Epsom. The draw is tough, but Jamie Richards has faith in his horse.
8. DANCETERIA
Trainer: David Menuisier; Jockey: Jamie Spencer; Barrier: 10; Odds: $15
Macca says: Hard to argue with his overseas form, which is as good as any in the race. Ran fourth to Enable in June in the Eclipse Stakes at Sandown (beaten five lengths) before scoring a dominant Group 1 win in Germany over 2000m. Missed a key lead-up run at Caulfield a fortnight ago.
9. LYS GRACIEUX
Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi; Jockey: Damian Lane; Barrier: 15; Odds: $3.50
Macca says: Could the Japanese make a clean sweep of the spring majors? International form analysts believe this highly talented Japanese mare has lengths on the Caulfield Cup winner Mer De Glace. She brings super formlines, with Group 1 success in the Takarazuka in Japan, and has been backed accordingly. Drawn wide, but so was Mer De Glace.
10. MAGIC WAND
Trainer: Aidan O'Brien; Jockey: Ryan Moore; Barrier: 3; Odds: $21
Macca says: Hard to measure up this mare's form, but she has been highly competitive at Group 1 level, albeit as a bridesmaid. Hasn't won a race for 18 months, but has been super competitive on most occasions she has stepped out. Went to down to Magical in the Irish Champion Stakes, who went on to win the British Champion Stakes. You can never discount the Aidan O'Brien factor.
11. CAPE OF GOOD HOPE
Trainer: David and Ben Hayes and Tom Dabernig; Jockey: Mark Zahra; Barrier: 8; Odds: $9
Macca says: His full brother Highland Reel ran third in this race and this bloke franked his hopes of going a few places better when storming home to win the Caulfield Stakes. The Lindsay Park team believe their astute purchase has improved since.
12. MYSTIC JOURNEY
Trainer: Adam Trinder; Jockey: Anthony Darmanin; Barrier: 6; Odds: $7
Macca says: This is the race the star Tassie mare has been set for all along. “Betty” stringed together seven wins in a row before losing Cox Plate favouritism with two recent losses. But her Turnbull Stakes run, when she was a long way back before storming home, was a real blackbooker. Hard to see her not being right in the finish.
13. VERRY ELLEEGANT
Trainer: Chris Waller; Jockey: James McDonald; Barrier: 5; Odds: $15
Macca says: Took a while to recapture the form that saw her win back-toback Group 1 wins as a three-year-old filly. But Chris Waller says he has her right where he needs her ahead of Saturday's big race. The mare has some quirks, but showed her class in the Group 2 Hill Stakes last start.
14. CASTELVECCHIO
Trainer: Richard Litt; Jockey: Craig Williams; Barrier: 4; Odds: $15
Macca says: Everything points to this year's crop of three-year-olds being one out of the box, so it is fitting to have Castelvecchio in the field. Wasn't all that far away from Bivouac and Yes Yes Yes in the Golden Rose (seventh, beaten four lengths) and ran a very game second to Derby favourite Shadow Hero in the Spring Champion.
THE EMERGENCIES
15. HUMIDOR. Trainer: Ciaron Maher; Jockey: Blake Shinn; Barrier: 14; Odds: $21. 16. MR QUICKIE. Trainer: Phillip Stokes; Jockey: Glen Boss; Barrier: 12; Odds: $21. 17. GAILO CHOP.
Trainer: Matthew Williams; Jockey: Damien Oliver; Odds: $31. 18. DREAM
CASTLE. Trainer: Saeed Bin Suroor; Jockey: Pat Cosgrave; Barrier: 13; Odds: $51