Is this the black swan for the US?

Hong Kong protest shock could leave US frighteningly unprepared, says Randall Doyle

IF one evaluates the importance of a story by the amount of media attention it receives, the Hong Kong dilemma is to be judged as being of peripheral importance to most Americans.

Yet, in truth, the Hong Kong crisis represents a truly dangerous situation for US foreign policy in East Asia.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a Lebanese-American scholar, published one of the most read books in the 21st century, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, in 2007. At the heart of his argument, Professor Taleb believes that history irrefutably shows most of the sudden jolts that have violently rocked a nation’s (or world’s) economic and social equilibrium are undirected and unpredicted.

In essence, an unexpected event of a momentous magnitude had caught a government, a nation, or even the global community fundamentally unprepared for its consequences.

The financial crisis of 20072009 was such an event. By most accounts, the global banking structure came within a whisker of total collapse. And, with it, a revisiting of the Great Depression that affected every corner of the world. Professor Adam Tooze’s brilliant 2018 book, Crash: How a Decade of Financial Crises Changed the World, defines just close the world came to total financial ruin.

So, what do the books of professors Taleb and Tooze have in common with the Hong Kong protests? Plenty. Hong Kong is recognised by the Chinese central government as a Special Administrative Region – with just over 7 million residents. It was a British colony from 1842 until 1997. Before Hong Kong was handed over to China an agreement was consummated between the British and Chinese governments in 1984. It was called the Sino-British Joint Declaration.

In short, China agreed to allow Hong Kong’s economic and political systems to exist for an additional 50 years after the formal handover of the colony in 1997. Presently, no other Chinese city, province or territory has the degree of freedoms and rights of Hong Kong. Every Hongkonger knows this. They intend to keep these freedoms and rights far beyond the original agreement. Hence, the endless riots that have roiled this former British Crown Colony to its very foundation.

The present political leader of Hong Kong is Chief Executive Carrie Lam, who was hand-picked by Beijing’s central government. In June, she proposed an amendment that was to be added to a Bill under consideration before the Hong Kong legislature. It would allow those considered to be fugitives from the law to be extradited to the mainland of China.

The Hong Kong judiciary system would be completely usurped. This was viewed correctly by the majority of Hongkongers as a direct threat to their legal standing in this special city-region. It was noted by protesters that the conviction rate of those tried in mainland China’s court system was better than 99 per cent. Basically, certain conviction awaited anyone who was put into this legal situation. Millions of Hongkongers took to the streets to protest this amendment.

What does this extremely intense and volatile situation in Hong Kong have to do with

US foreign policy? Plenty. The protesters have looked to the US for moral and political support. President Donald Trump has been cautious and reluctant to being seen as too supportive of the protesters. The ongoing trade war with the People’s Republic of China has taken its toll on the relationship between these two powerful nations. America’s National Basketball Association was chastised and punished for being too supportive of the protesters. The NBA has a potential $4 billion market in China. Yes, the geopolitical complexities and risks are huge.

America’s allies have quietly asked, What would America do if Chinese President Xi Jinping sent in the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) onto the streets of Hong Kong? Chinese troops are already situated in Hong Kong, but have remained in their barracks. President Xi, though, has publicly threatened “crushed bodies and shattered bones” if the Hong Kong demonstrators do not stop their public defiance of the central government. Xi’s reference to “crushed bodies and shattered bones” was a thinly veiled reference to the deadly violence associated with the government’s actions at Tiananmen Square in 1989.

If such an event occurred again, in Hong Kong, how would the West respond this time? China has warned the US and Great Britain to mind their own business. How would democracies such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore respond if China sent in its army to quash the Hong Kong protesters? If the US and its regional allies did intervene, how would the Chinese react? Would China make a move on Taiwan? If so, then what? Would America’s allies even show up?

Tough questions in need of tough answers.

The potential for a major conflagration between China and America (and its regional allies) is no longer beyond the pale. Why? China cannot back down. The history of European and Western imperialism humiliating China has the nation’s leadership boxed in. The Chinese Communist Party cannot appear to be seen as weak. It

would destroy its credibility as a governing body throughout the country.

Hence, an undirected and unpredicted Black Swan event could truly spark a military confrontation of frightening and unknown consequences.

In August 1914, most of the governments in Europe believed World War I would last six months. It lasted four years. Over 20 million dead. It’s been a century since the war ended but Europe remains haunted and traumatised.

In June 1914, World War I was put into motion due to a Black Swan act — the assassination of the heir to the

Austrian-Hungarian Empire.

More than a century later, we must be vigilantly conscious of the possibility that a similar Black Swan event might trigger another historic slaughter – this time in East Asia? Professor Randall Doyle teaches US history, government and international relations at MidMichigan College. He has taught at North China University of Technology in Beijing, and the Ocean University of China in Qingdao. He is author of The Australian Nexus: At the Center of the Storm and is a regular visitor to Tasmania.