Libs chart a fresh course

SOMETIME around lunchtime today, Tasmanians will be informed who their new premier will be. The Parliamentary Liberal Party will hold a ballot during a noon meeting in Hobart and, if all goes well, a victor will emerge soon after.

The vote has been made necessary by the sudden departure of Premier Will Hodgman midway through his second term. Having vowed in 2018 to serve until the next election, and reaffirming that decision before Christmas, Mr Hodgman is off to life beyond politics, having not anointed a successor. Good luck to him.

The debate over the legacy of the state’s 45th premier will continue. Some will point to his achievements in reinvigorating the state’s economy, others to his efforts against family violence. But perhaps his greatest achievement was keeping the rival factions of the Liberal Party in check for as long as he has. With Peter Gutwein facing off today against Michael Ferguson, the division between the moderate and the conservative wings of the Liberals is out in the open. Regardless of who wins, the new leader’s biggest task will be to ensure that the appearance of unity over the last six years is maintained. That may be a task which tests the most accomplished of diplomats.

The departure of Mr Hodgman is in many ways a gift for the Labor opposition. It deprives the Liberals of their greatest vote-winner and chief salesman. It dismantles the successful trio of Hodgman, Rockliff

THE NEW LEADER’S BIGGEST TASK WILL BE TO ENSURE THAT THE APPEARANCE OF UNITY OVER THE LAST SIX YEARS IS MAINTAINED.

and Gutwein, who have steered the state since 2014. It creates a whiff of uncertainty about the state’s future path and it reduces the talent pool of experienced senior ministers by one — something that is critical in such a small parliament. The histories of both declared candidates give Labor opportunity to seek advantage: Mr Gutwein chiefly as the author of budget cutbacks across portfolios, Mr Ferguson for his management of the state’s health crisis.

Tasmanian state politics can be a dynamic affair. There will be flow-on effects to emerge out of today’s vote. With a cabinet reshuffle looming, there will be a second set of winners and losers to emerge by the end of the week. The results may cause some to consider their future and perhaps decide they may wish to depart at the next election — or even before. Will the new leader be able to maintain Speaker Sue Hickey within the orbit of the party? Will she hold onto her role? Could independent Madeleine Ogilvie be enticed further into the fold to cement the Government’s sometimes shaky majority?

It will be nine years on Thursday since Labor’s David Bartlett stepped down as Premier. His party was voted out under his replacement Lara Giddings three years later. There are more differences than parallels this time around, but despite a handy lead in the polls, winning a third consecutive term in 2022 was going to be a tough ask for any Liberal leader. Whoever wins today’s vote has a bigger job ahead of them than just maintaining the state’s impressive recent momentum. It will be a test indeed for anyone who fancies their leadership qualities — within their own party just as much for the state as a whole.

Responsibility for all editorial comment is taken by the Editor, Chris Jones, Level 1, 2 Salamanca Square, Hobart, TAS, 7000