Steady as she goes for Liberal ship

The recent internal Liberal Party leadership battle between now-Premier Peter Gutwein and Michael Ferguson was a real sliding-doors moment for the Liberal Party, and for Tasmania.

On the one hand the Gutwein-Rockliff team represented continuity and stability, while on the other the equally hardworking and talented Ferguson-Archer team would have likely meant a sharp change in direction.

Given that overall both the Government and the state are travelling well, it is hardly a surprise that the majority of the Liberal party-room chose Peter Gutwein to be Tasmania’s next Premier.

That is not to say that the result was in any way a foregone conclusion – behind closed doors the battle was closely and heatedly fought.

While there is no doubt that the shrewd move of Jeremy Rockliff to run on a ticket with Gutwein was a major factor in moving votes Gutwein’s way, in the end it was public sentiment that proved decisive.

As undecided Parliamentary Liberal Party members travelled across their electorates in the days leading up to the vote, the feedback was overwhelming – “we like Michael, but it’s got to be Gutwein”.

Overall, the leadership process was tidy and well managed. It didn’t spill unnecessarily into the public arena, no-one publicly attacked their colleagues and it was a true democratic process with the vote only being called off once the outcome was clear.

As a result we have a new Premier who has a legitimacy in the eyes of the public in a way no Labor Party-style “coronation of the chosen one” could have achieved.

And so the ball is now firmly in Premier Peter Gutwein’s court – can he really take Tasmania to the “next level”, as promised at the election? If the cautious first two weeks are anything to go by, those armchair economists and commentators wishing for big, bold and crazy political decisionmaking are set to be sorely disappointed.

Having been elected on a platform of stability and continuity, the new Premier is no more likely to commit political suicide with things like forced council amalgamations, a bigger parliament or sales of Government Business Enterprises than his predecessor was.

While under Will Hodgman there was never a sense that the Government was out of touch with community sentiment on climate change, the move by Premier Gutwein to name it up as a challenge, and to make himself the Climate Change Minister was politically very clever.

It is clear though that we are likely to see significant attention paid to the ever ballooning health budget, and that an attempt will be made to address some of the structural and cultural issues in health.

No doubt this will not be an easy task and despite their bizarre offer this week to “put politics aside” on health, Labor will fight whatever changes are put forward.

For their part, the resignation of Will Hodgman offers Labor the much needed opportunity to get back into the game.

While it was as obvious as the beard on David O’Byrne’s face that Labor would have preferred Michael Ferguson, Premier Gutwein offers them plenty of room to move if they are smart enough to take it.

Although so far, it has to be said, they have failed dismally. The messaging during the leadership battle was innocuous and inept and the messaging in the first two weeks of the new Premier has been equally lacklustre.

So far they have allowed the new Premier free rein to settle in and define himself as a “steady as you go” Premier.

It’s all well and good to wait for some sort of serious unforced error but with 18 years in the parliament, six as Treasurer and with Jeremy Rockliff keeping a wise eye on proceedings, it’s not an approach I would recommend.

Looking forward, Labor will now be seeing an electoral opportunity in Franklin without Will Hodgman’s massive votedrawing power – but in my view, this shouldn’t be overplayed.

The Liberal Party polled more than 48 per cent in Franklin in the last election and yet still only won two seats (narrowly missing a third by a little over 200 votes) – that vote could crash by 15 per cent to the mid-30s and they would still retain the two seats.

State elections are won in the North and with Premier Gutwein, Deputy Premier Rockliff and Finance Minister Ferguson in Bass and Braddon, the Liberals remain well positioned to win majority government again in 2022. Brad Stansfield was Chief of Staff to Premier Will Hodgman from 2010-18. He is now a partner at Font PR, his clients include the Liberal Party.