Virus set to change our way of life

After COVID-19, people are likely to want more space, not less, says Bob Cotgrove

PROCESSES of social change are generally slow and continuous, often so subtle that most people are unaware of them. Occasionally, however, they can be given a jolt, a parameter shift, that creates a discontinuity and even a change in direction.

It will be interesting to see what effects the COVID-19 pandemic will have on modern societies.

Since World War II employment has shifted from manufacturing and related industries to service jobs, especially those requiring tertiary qualifications.

Service jobs are gender neutral, resulting in the growth of female employment, particularly among women with dependent children. Women now outnumber men in the urban workforce.

Rising incomes and the need to juggle work with home and family led to increasing car ownership. Car ownership freed workers from the necessity to live near their work or near tram and train routes. Residential locations expanded to more desirable locations such as hill slopes, bush settings, near beaches and rivers and on cheaper land at the urban periphery.

Shopping and an increasing proportion of office jobs are now in large decentralised suburban nodes.

Major infrastructure projects facilitated these trends. The attractions of residential development in Clarence and Sorell led to population growth after the Tasman Bridge was built in the 1960s. A similar population rush accompanied the opening of the Southern Outlet in 1969 and its expansion to a dual carriageway in 1990.

When the Tasman Bridge was knocked down in 1975 traffic between the eastern and western shores was dislocated and people relied on ferries.

As soon as the bridge was restored, traffic returned to normal and ferry traffic reduced to near zero. Despite these trends, governments for 60 years, at the urging of planners, engineers and architects, have resisted the expansion of low-density settlement and related car use.

Planning policy has endeavoured to reconsolidate cities into higher density suburbs aligned to public transport by criticising “urban sprawl” and denigrating motorists as lazy, selfish and uncaring for the environment.

Modern electronic communications systems and containerisation revolutionised freight movements. Firms have increasingly substituted “just in time” supply chain flows for “just in case” warehousing.

When the COVID-19 pandemic passes, it is likely that the trend to low-density settlement and associated car use will continue, perhaps at a faster rate.

An independent home with a garden for growing vegetables, roof space for solar panels and potential for onsite supply of water and waste treatment is likely to appeal to home buyers if, and when, a future outbreak requires social isolation.

Working from home, with self-contained office space and internet communication, is another trend likely to be given a boost, as is internet shopping and telehealth. Why bother travelling and spending time waiting to be served when services and contacts can be accessed cheaply and more quickly from home?

Traffic to the city centre is likely to fall while travel bypassing the city centre to reach other destinations for recreation, social visiting, cultural events and entertainment venues is likely to increase due to the inherent need for social contact.

Also, the trend to substitute flows for stocks will have to be modified for strategic reasons. In an emergency it is important that society has adequate stocks of vital resources such as fuel, food and medical supplies.

Events causing major social disruption can become catalysts for jump-starting trends and create a disjunction from the past. COVID-19 could be one such event.