Dim sum of China tariffs

WOOL, wine, barley and seafood industries have the most to lose if China enacts further bans such as those that have already threatened to devastate the beef industry. China has banned the importation of Australian beef, and barley is next on the chopping block.

D-Day looms on Tuesday, when the industry will learn whether China intends to put an 80 per cent tariff on exports.

China is the industry’s biggest international market, worth about $1.3 billion, according to Grain Growers chairman Brett Hosking, who said they were in a “holding pattern” while awaiting the determination.

Tensions between the two countries have risen because of Australia’s push for an inquiry into COVID-19. Chinese Ambassador Cheng Jingye has warned the review could lead to Chinese consumers boycotting Australian products.

The wool industry — which exported $3.6 billion internationally in 2016-17 — has already taken a hit amid the COVID-19 virus, and Australian Wool Growers Association director Robert Ingram said any restrictions would “purely be malicious”.

“China takes over 85 per cent of our clip, and the Italian market has been decimated by the coronavirus,” he said.

“If they slapped any restrictions on the wool trade, it would be catastrophic. I cannot see how they would justify any action they would take against wool.”

The wine industry is also particularly vulnerable to any adverse reaction from China, which imported $1.1 billion of Australian product in the past 12 months.

Australian Grape and Wine CEO Tony Battaglene said China was a big part of the industry’s recovery from COVID-19 as they had started reopening the economy. He said any disruptions would have a “big impact”, but didn’t anticipate any bans or tariffs.

“Everyone is concerned when there’s any tensions,” Mr Battaglene said. “It’s hard to see they would impose tariffs. It’s hard to see a justification for them, so I don’t even really think that’s in the frame.”

Seafood is big business in China, with almost 94 per cent of Australia’s rock lobster going to the country in 2019, representing $714 million of a $762 million export industry. Seafood Industry Australia declined to comment on how any bans or tariffs would affect it.

The education industry has already received the threat of boycotts, with Mr Cheng saying: “The parents of students would also think … whether this is the best place to send their kids.”

International education is worth $37.6 billion to the country’s economy.