Unshakeable conviction

YESTERDAY, Premier Peter Gutwein faced Tasmanians to give them an economic update — the only Premier in the country to do so. He said he wanted to make our situation clear and, as he’s done since the start of the coronavirus crisis, he pulled no punches in spelling out the dire financial situation our state now faces.

“If we’re going to move forward together, we need to know where we are starting from,” he said.

Now, it should come as no surprise to anyone that closing our country, our state and huge sectors of our economy has had severe ramifications.

Our economy, which was the fastest growing in the country, will be in decline by nearly 2 per cent.

The $11 million surplus we were expecting this year will now be a $700 million deficit.

Next year, net debt will be $2.35 billion.

Our unemployment rate is expected to be above 12 per cent.

Let’s be honest, the numbers blur into one, and the headline really is that we’re facing some of the worst economic outcomes this state has ever seen.

And what’s worse is that if we mess up our hibernation exit plan and rush it, we face the very real possibility — as we’ve seen in other countries — of a second wave of infections that sets us back to the start.

But, there is a lot to be thankful for.

The coronavirus modelling used for decisionmaking purposes by national cabinet showed that had we not acted as swiftly as we did, 90 per cent of Tasmanians could have contracted the virus.

Furthermore, based on global mortality rates — and not forgetting Tasmania has the highest mortality rate in the country — tens of thousands of our friends and family could have died.

We are incredibly fortunate that our leaders chose life over money, and that we haven’t faced the same dire death toll that we’ve seen overseas.

Secondly, Tasmania is fortunate our budget was in such good condition before this crisis.

We had no net debt and we had the country’s fastest growing economy, so we at least started from the best possible position.

And thirdly, we are lucky because Mr Gutwein has done this before.

He has a plan, and his conviction when delivering this plan yesterday allowed Tasmanians to believe that while the road ahead will not be easy, the state’s Premier is unshakeable in his resolve.

In coming weeks, the Treasury’s $3.7 billion infrastructure program will be fast-tracked.

Local councils will receive interest-free loans and shovel-ready projects will start to sprout from the ground.

“We will build ourselves out of it,” Mr Gutwein said, while reinforcing our traditional key industries will be bolstered and strengthened in preparation for the next phase.

In confiding to Tasmanians the bleak economic situation ahead of us, Mr Gutwein stressed that as a state, we’d have to work together, harder than ever, to get ourselves back on top.

We challenge you to find a more iconic Tasmanian photo than the one on page 3 of today’s Mercury.

Out of the mist, a rainbow and a half-smile from Mr Gutwein.

He knows just how long the road ahead will be, yet he refuses to lose sight of the glimmer from that pot of gold he knows exists at the rainbow’s end.

We should carry that hope with us in coming weeks and months.

Responsibility for all editorial comment is taken by the Editor, Jenna Cairney, Level 1, 2 Salamanca Square, Hobart, TAS, 7000