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A world-first climate atlas by UTAS researchers leads the way for wine industry’s adaptation to climate change, says

TASMANIA is internationally known for its high quality, cool climate wines. Tasmanian pinot noirs and sparkling wines in particular have won acclaim, but Tasmania grows diverse varieties and makes many praiseworthy wines. It’s an industry worth $115 million to the Tasmanian economy, which employs about 2000 people, and attracts thousands of visitors annually to our cellar doors and wineries.

For more than a decade, however, Tasmanian wine growers have been dealing with the very tangible effects of climate change. Increased heat, changed rainfall patterns, bushfires and fewer cold periods have already demanded adaptations from many wine growers. Climate modelling shows more changes to come into the future.

If global greenhouse gas emissions do not drop soon, by 2100, the coolest regions in Tasmania may become similar to the Coonawarra in South Australia — a comparatively hotter and drier wine growing region, growing different grape varieties and producing quite different wines.

Our Climate Futures research team at the University of Tasmania — a multidisciplinary group of climate change researchers and translators of science into real-world, usable information — has been working with the Tasmanian wine industry for years. In this time, we have already observed Tasmanian wine growers being nimble and forward-looking in

their efforts to adapt to wine growing under climate change. For example, we’ve seen growers move some varieties to higher altitudes for cooler growing conditions, or plant on south facing slopes, to reduce exposure to heat. We have also seen new varieties starting to be grown in Tasmania. Shiraz, once thought of as difficult to grow in Tasmania, is now becoming more common in Tasmania’s vineyards.

As part of our ongoing work with the wine industry, Climate Futures is releasing Australia’s Wine Future: A Climate Atlas.

The culmination of a four-year effort funded by Wine Australia, this 400-page atlas uses finescale regional climate modelling to provide indices for wine growing conditions including temperature, rainfall, extreme heat and cold and aridity out to 2100, from the northern wine regions of Queensland to Tasmania’s premium wine regions in the southernmost tip of the nation, to the nation’s western southern and eastern growing regions. The atlas divides Tasmania’s wine growing areas into six regions, allowing local wineries and growers to plan at a detailed level for a changing climate.

Although it faces many challenges with its changing climate, Tasmania has the fortune of being somewhat protected by its encircling ocean. This maritime setting means heatwaves are projected to be relatively less extreme, and drought risk less intense than in many other locations. As in other parts of Australia, there is scope to adapt viticultural practices in particular, and agriculture more generally, to reduce some of the impacts of climate change in the coming decades.

This is no time to be complacent, however, with much transformation still needed and with change accelerating into the future, based on current emissions.With warmer and drier conditions, an immediate threat is the increasing fire risk. Modelling has shown that fires may burn twice as often, over twice the area and with twice the intensity by century’s end, compared to current conditions. This is a problem for wine growers, with some areas particularly susceptible to fire risk and smoke taint.

In other areas, biosecurity may become an escalating challenge. Fruit fly has already had temporary impacts on wine growers in the north of the state. As the climate heats up, our exposure to this and other pests is projected to increase, adding to the biosecurity threat across the state. There is still much research to be done in this space.

Our Climate Atlas provides the tailored information needed to inform adaptations. Tasmanian wine growers are already being proactive about change, and no doubt, many other industries will need the kind of information that the

Climate Atlas provides, to likewise adapt to our changing climate.There’s also no doubt that, without urgent global action to curb emissions, our planet’s heating will exceed the thresholds to which we can readily adapt, and many of our valuable agricultural industries will be exposed to greater risks, which will be increasingly costly to avoid.

With a target of 200 per cent renewable energy by 2040, Tasmania is already leading the way in Australia in building a decarbonised economy and curbing the emissions that contribute to climate change.

This positions us as an attractive green-investment option internationally. The state may also now lead Australia by showing what adaptation to a changing climate looks like — especially when it comes to growing fine Tasmanian wines. Australia’s Wine Future: A Climate Atlas was researched and written by Dr Tom Remenyi, Dean Rollins, Dr Peter Love, Dr Nick Earl, Professor Nathan Bindoff and Dr Rebecca Harris of the Climate Futures Program, UTAS. It can be downloaded from www.climatefutures.org.au Dr Gabi Mocatta is a research fellow in Climate Change Communication with the Climate Futures program.