Time to lift the internal restrictions

Shutdown is now doing us more harm than good, writes Martyn Goddard

THE time has come for Tasmania to lift all remaining internal COVID-19 restrictions. At once. They have served us well, but now they are doing a lot of harm and almost no good.

It is blindingly obvious that in order to be infected, there has to be someone else with the virus to pass it on to you.

If that other person doesn’t exist, you won’t get the virus — no matter what you do.

There are no active cases in Tasmania. Nobody is in intensive care. It is more than four weeks since the last new case.

When the New Zealand government came to the same conclusion after only two weeks with no new cases, their restrictions were lifted to great acclaim.

The New Zealanders understand that although all risk has not disappeared, their shutdown was no longer justified. The Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, put it this way: “We will almost certainly see cases here again, and that is not a sign that we have failed, it is a reality of this virus. But if and when that occurs, we have to make sure, and we are, that we are prepared.”

Public health bureaucrats, understandably, act with immense caution. Who, in their place, would want to take the risk of being blamed for a new outbreak — or even for a single case. But it’s a basic principle of health policy that all relevant data should be used to balance the risks and benefits of any decision.

We need to look at both sides of the ledger, but right now we’re not doing that.

There is excellent research from many nations showing the link between unemployment and suicide, particularly among men. Australian studies have shown men who are unemployed are more than 4.5 times as likely to kill themselves as men who have jobs.

Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, expects the national unemployment rate to reach 9 per cent this month, and to still be at 8 per cent by the end of the year. In Tasmania, with an economy that typically has higher unemployment and which is heavily reliant on tourism, it’s likely to be worse.

The atmosphere of lockdown, and the irrational fears it generates, is stopping significant numbers of people from going to the doctor.

As a result, diagnoses for cancer, heart disease, diabetes and other life-threatening illnesses have plummeted.

These restrictions are costing many more lives than they could possibly save.

Of course, the economic impact of these restrictions cannot be ignored either.

Businesses which have survived so far may not survive for another month, or however long it takes for the government to bring us back to normality.

The same applies to the performing arts, restaurants and sporting events.

These have been the hardest hit of all. The risk involved in keeping them in the deep-freeze has declined to the point at which it is massively outweighed by the benefits of opening up again.

The whole community has been submerged in fear and gloom. Fear of real and present danger saves lives.

But maintaining that fear when the danger has passed is just plain crazy.

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WE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY SEE CASES HERE AGAIN, AND THAT IS NOT A SIGN THAT WE HAVE FAILED, IT IS A REALITY OF THIS VIRUS. BUT IF AND WHEN THAT OCCURS, WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE, AND WE ARE, THAT WE ARE PREPARED NEW ZELAND PRIME MINISTER JACINDA ARDERN