Non-virus death toll is soaring

THE true death toll during the COVID-19 pandemic may be 17 times higher than figures from the virus alone, as a lack of access to medical and mental health treatments are linked to higher fatality rates from non-corona causes.

From the start of this year to the end of April, 91 Australians died from COVID-19. But in that period, there were 1572 more deaths from other causes than the yearly average for that four-month period.

It is believed some of those deaths may be the result of elective surgery bans or people refusing to visit doctors and hospitals to have medical tests during the pandemic.

On average, 42,507 people die every year between January 1 and April 28 but this year there were 1572 more deaths than the average, the Australian Bureau of Statistics found.

Interestingly, the data shows that deaths from our biggest killers — heart disease and strokes — fell.

But there were increases in deaths from respiratory illness including pneumonia and flu, asthma and emphysema — which were up by 226.

It might be that some of these deaths were COVIDrelated but the patient was never tested for the virus.

“There may well be some,”

Australian National University epidemiologist Professor Peter Collignon said. “But I think it’s very unlikely that those deaths are predominantly due to COVID. If they were due to COVID, that means we would have had a lot more clinical disease.

“So, yes, it’s possible some of those cases were due to COVID but I think it’s much more likely that there may have been a delay in getting medical therapy.”

Cancer deaths increased by 402, deaths from diabetes rose by 88 and dementia deaths were up 220 compared to the five-year average.

It follows the UK experience, where twice as many people were reported dying at home from unexplained causes rather than coronavirus.

There are grave fears that economic distress, depression and loneliness caused by COVID-19 could see a spike in suicides but there is no evidence that this has occurred.

Modelling by the University of Sydney predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic could cause between 750 and 1500 additional suicides.

However, the Victorian Coroners Court suicide registry found there had been no increase in the frequency of suspected suicides in Victoria during the pandemic up to the end of last month.

Calls to Lifeline are up by 25 per cent and Beyond Blue said more than 500,000 people had used its coronavirus mental wellbeing service.

Suicide Prevention Australia chief executive Nieves Murray said any increase in suicides caused by COVID-19 would not be immediate.

“In Christchurch (after the 2011 earthquake), it was something like three years before we started to see the impact on people in a mental health capacity,” she said.

“Communities rally at a time of a crisis. It’s when those supports start to wane that we see … increased distress.”

Financial distress is a key driver of suicide and Financial Counselling Australia’s executive director Fiona Guthrie said JobKeeper and JobSeeker payments had so far meant calls to the national debt helpline had been steady.