The only poll that matters

POLLS are controversial for good reason. And Charles Wooley is right in his column today to approach them with some healthy scepticism. He says polls were wrong about the last federal election, the Brexit result in the UK and the 2016 US presidential election.

But what is interesting is people’s willingness to question only the poll results that don’t suit their narrative.

This week, the Mercury published EMRS data showing that the majority of Tasmanians want borders reopened.

Because that poll was commissioned by Federal Group and because those who want the borders to remain closed are petrified of a second wave of coronavirus ripping through the state, it drew significant criticism.

Polling by the same company released earlier this month showed that Premier Peter Gutwein had 70 per cent backing as Tasmania’s preferred leader.

Meanwhile, support for Opposition Leader Rebecca White fell from 41 per cent to 23 per cent over the same period. No one seemed to pooh-pooh those results.

Some, however, did use other polling to say that Labor’s popularity had plummeted because the party abandoned reforming pokies legislation after it was beaten at the last election.

As Mr Wooley points out, the only poll that really

IT’S LIKELY THAT WHEN MR GUTWEIN FINALLY DOES OPEN TASMANIA’S BORDERS AT LEAST HALF THE STATE WON’T AGREE WITH THE DECISION

matters is the one that happens on election day. The rest of the time, it’s an interesting tool that points to trends, indicates shifts in sentiment and is certainly a conversation starter.

But we wouldn’t be using the results to help us place any large bets.

In 2020, we have found ourselves living in difficult times. The coronavirus crisis has challenged us in ways we never imagined and, realistically, we’re a long way from the finish line. Even when we find a way of living with the virus, we’ll be feeling the economic ramifications for a long time.

In the thick of a crisis, political leaders tend to shine. The public is a captive audience; our instinct is to band together and search for someone to follow and, in the main, the Prime Minister and each of the state’s leaders have done their jobs well.

Opinion polls have reflected strong performances. But, as is the case in any crisis, there will come a point where our leaders need to make tough calls that may or may not enjoy popular support. And they may need to do that because it’s just the right thing to do.

Fiscal policy, decisions about restrictions and plans for future economic development will all be hotbutton issues.

It’s likely that when Mr Gutwein finally does open Tasmania’s borders, at least half the state won’t agree with the decision.

But the true leaders who will guide us out of this crisis most effectively will park their vanity and ignore the opinion polls in order to do what must be done.

They may or may not be rewarded in the only poll that matters – a forthcoming election – but history will show who made the right calls for the right reasons.