Batten down for stormy summer, say forecasters

Intense cyclones and big downpours are on the summer agenda, with a La Nina event to occur this year, the weather bureau declared on Tuesday.

La Nina is a weather phenomenon linked to the shifting pattern of sea surface temperatures through the Pacific and Indian Oceans, which affects rainfall and temperature variations in Australia.

Typically, La Nina is associated with heavier rainfall and increased numbers of tropical cyclones.

On the bright side, a rainier summer means the danger of bushfires decreases. But La Nina has in the past brought devastating storms, including in 2011 when Cyclone Yasi thrashed far north Queensland and caused millions of dollars in damage.

Meteorologists believe this summer will bring extreme weather, although of a different kind than last year.

“Generally, it’s the opposite of what we saw last year. We had the hottest and driest year on record, with a drought, devastating bushfires and dust storms coming through,” Sky News Weather channel’s chief meteorologist Tom Saunders said.

“With La Nina, though, we can expect higher rainfall, higher risk of flooding, and also a higher risk of tropical cyclones.”

BOM analysts who have surveyed climate models agree La Nina will persist until at least January. About half of the models predict it will be a strong event, while others forecast it will be moderate.

“Overall, models do not currently anticipate this event will be as strong as the La Nina of 2010-12, which was one of the four worst on record,” a BOM report says.