Owning up to the grim figures behind

The state was doing badly before COVID, setting us up for a harder fall, says David O’Byrne

NOT usually on the minds of most Tasmanians, statistics have taken centre stage during COVID-19. We have all hung on the key statistics—the number of new and active cases, the shape of the infection curve and, sadly, the number of deaths. And we have used these numbers to measure our success in fighting the pandemic by tracking our progress and determining which state and federal policy measures have the desired impact. By relying on agreed, evidence-based numbers, all sides of politics have been able to support COVID-19 measures. Since the unfortunate outbreak in the North-West, Tasmania’s results have been positive, with our natural borders and health and social distancing measures serving us well.

Now is the time to look forward and identify the key statistical indicators that can guide us in building a strong economy and a strong and more equal community. While there are many in tangible things we value about living in our beautiful state, there are things that can and should be measured. We need a post-COVID recovery plan based on what the statistics tell us.

And the economic statistics tell us Tasmania was under performing in many areas before heading into the pandemic, leaving us exposed and under prepared for the long haul back from the state’ s toughest economic times since the Great Depression. State final demand, the total value of goods and services sold in the state, is Premier Peter Gut we in’ s preferred measure of economic success. The December 2019 quarter result was a sobering negative 1.0 per cent, the worst in the country, and showed only as light improvement in the March 2020 quarter at 0.6 percent.

The state budget debt position has deteriorated on Peter Gutwein’s watch. Net debt in the last budget was projected to be $284.5 min 2019-2020 and $643.1 min 2020-2021. Net debt is now forecast to beat least $1577m in2020-2021.

Australian Bureau of Statistics figures show Tasmania has lost more than 11,000 jobs since March, a decline of 4.3 percent, and higher than anywhere in the country except Victoria and the ACT. The tourism and hospitality sector has been particularly hard hit, with 4100 job losses ,850 in the past few weeks. There are 3100 fewer