Poll position sign of ahorroryear
President Trump was more popular than anyone was willing to admit. A cataclysmic 2020 played out in voters’ minds, writes RandallDoyle
BE FORE I write about the 2020 US elections, I think it is critically important to put the min their economic and social perspectives.
It is not pretty. In fact, it is damn ugly. This year has rocked America like no other in living memory— thatincludes9/11in2001,theJFK assassination on November 22, 1963, and the bombing of Pearl Harboron December7,1941.
No year comes close to the number of cataclysmic events that have shaken America to it score. Several events played a defining role in the mind set of US voters.
They provide a back drop to understanding the results, which are beginning to emerge after polls closed across America on Tuesday evening. First, America is in an unprecedented employment crisis. Last week 1.1 million Americans applied for state unemployment benefits or Pandemic Unemployment Aid. The weekly unemployed seeking financial assistance has not dropped below one million since March! There are about 50 million unemployed and under-employed Americans, and millions who have simply dropped out of the job market.
Workers are refusing to work at garbage jobs that have no health or retirement benefits. Most jobs created in the past few months are garbage jobs. Most of the economic recovery has been achieved on the back soft he working poor. State governments, schools, small businesses and corporate America have permanently terminated millionsofwell-payingmiddle-class jobs. There is a growing army of desperate Americans witnessing their work lives slip ping away. Bankruptcies and insolvencies are rising dramatically.
Second, as predicted by domestic and international virologists, the COVID-19pandemiciscoming back with a vengeance. The number of new cases has soared above 100,000 a day. Hospitals, again, are being overwhelmed. About 1000 C OVID-related deaths occur daily.
Only scientists( who are simply ignored these days) are publicly stating a new lock down is needed. Americans are horrified and shocked to see new lock down sin GreatBritainandFrance.No politician in America has the courage or integrity to say what the medical community is recommending, a new lock down. Fear, ignorance and shame prevent America from dealing with this calamity with any degree of proficiency. The death toll has climbed above 234,000. The corporate news barely mentions casualties anymore. It is an ongoing horror Americans simply avert their eyes from.
Third, there is a social revolution unfolding. White America had hoped summer protests about police brutality, inequality and the lack of opportunities for people of colour would just fade away, like they always had. Not this time. Why? Because America discovered one-third of the nation is now nonwhite. They are rest less. They are demanding. They will no longer settleforathird-ratepublic-school education. Nor will they settle for low-payingdead-endjobs.Andthe days of police just shooting black males because they were perceived as a threat are coming to a close.
America is unsettled. We can’ t seem to get our groove back. Too many sector so four society are out of synch. None of the societal developments mentioned can be avoided. And, in the midst of these colliding economic and social forces, we had to elect a president. The nation sensed disharmony throughout the land. Yet we had to pick a president to right the ship, if possible. The choice was between two men who were flawed, and difficult to discern for millions of voters. Nevertheless, one had to be elected. America suddenly became a nation paralysed by in decision.
The Republican Party offered President Donald Trump, who saw his potentially easy re-election go down the drain. The nation’ s thriving economy was brought to its knees by the pandemic. President Trump never recovered his mo join there st of 2020. He remains extremely popular within the Republican Party, but his approval rating dropped into them id-40s.
The Democratic Party offered formerUSvice-presidentJoe Bid en. His overall popularity has proven limited as well. Bid en isa moderate, but the party he leads is increasingly liberal and progressive. Bi denis viewed with great suspicion by the young progressive Left wing of the party. However, the Left has nowhere else togo politically. Thus his candidacy has become a dilemma for millions of Democrats.
Emerging final numbers have become a mirror image of the candidates, their parties, and the nation. The race is close, very close.
As of writing, Bid en has as light edge. Why? Because the remaining votes are in cities or regions in states( Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania) viewed as strong holds for the Democratic Party. The early leads Trump compiled have melted away as early voting ballots are counted. Here area few takeaways:
TRUMP’SNUMBERS weremuch stronger than national polls indicated. He will receive at least 48 percent of the national vote. The national media never reported this electoral strength. Never.
THE POLLING INDUSTRY
suffered another huge hit to its
credibility. As in 2016, pollsters were consistently wrong. The profession is beginning to look like a latter-day version of the travelling snake-oil sales men. Lots of analysis and predictions, but in the end their work was viewed by most voters as meaning less, if not fraudulent.
PRESIDENTTRUMP wasmuch more popular with voters than anyone was willing to admit. Trump will receive well over 70 million votes,thesecond-highestin presidential electoral history. He continued to receive high marks for his handling of the economy. Conversely, his numbers plummeted on his handling of the pandemic. More than 234,000 deaths may in hindsight be seen as the primary reason for the President’ s defeat.
VICE-PRESIDENTBIDEN was able to put together the 2008 Ba rack Oba ma coalition. Not as successfully, but enough to probably win. Bid en would be the oldest president( he is 78 on November 20) to ever take office.
If Bi denis elected, he will be confronted on Day One with enormous domestic and international challenges. All Americans( and Australians) will hope and pray the new president will have the courage and wisdom to solve these matters in the best interests of America and the world.
To put it mildly ,2020 has not been a banner year for America, or for the world. Perhaps, just maybe, a new president might just represent a new beginning for all of us. Professor Randall Doyle teaches US history, government and international relations at Mid-Michigan College. He is author of The Australian Nexus: At the Center of the Storm, and is a regular visitor to Tasmania.
renewable energy projects deliver social, economic and environmental benefits once construction has been completed in them id-2030s.
As the government keeps reminding us, initiatives in the Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan( T REAP) have the potential to unlock more than $7 bn in investment and create up to 4000 direct jobs at the peak of the construction. There will be ongoing jobs, but in much lower numbers.
We must continue to focus on providing training to maximise the number of Tasmanians with the skills to work in the renewable energy economy. Many renewable energy input scan and should be sourced locally. Given the scale of investment envisaged under T REAP, there should be sector-wide assessmentso local suppliers and contractors are able to meet demand.
There is a need to develop stronger partnerships with communities to enhance support for projects. This ambitious strategy will only succeed if the vast majority of Tasmanians support and ultimately benefit. Long-term benefits will flow if we identify on-island uses for additional renewable energy, rather than being the battery for the national grid alone.
These include a renewable hydrogen industry for off-and on-shore commercial use, electrifying transport and becoming a hub for renewable energy expertise, in technical fields such as engineering and manufacturing and professional services such as carbon finance and certification. If we can build and promote a renewable energy and low-carbo nbrand it will benefit exporters and help attract visitors, whether tourists, students or mi grants wanting to make Tasmania their home. Establishing Tasmania as an innovative low-carbon island leading the global charge to net zero emissions should be the vision for our post-pandemic future.
The U TA S submission is at https://www.utas.edu.au/__data/ assets/pdf_file/0006/1412466/ UTAS-TREAP.pdf Richard Eccles ton is Professor of Political Science and Dr Ben Parr is a specialist in climate policy. They co-ordinated the University of Tasmania’ s submission to the Tasmanian Renewable Energy Action Plan.