DEMOCRACY BY THE NUMBERS
PREMIER Jeremy Rockliff surprised many – including some in his own party – when he announced his plan to restore the size of the House of Assembly from 25 to 35 members. Mr Rockliff explained the decision was intended to create a healthier parliament, reversing a mistake made in 1998. Any keen observer of Tasmanian politics over the past few months would be keenly aware of the strain many of our elected members labour under. Several long-serving ministers have resigned because of the difficulty in balancing the demands of office and family life. Others soldier on under the burden of multiple portfolios, as the government struggles to recruit and retain talent. Who knows how many suitable potential candidates have thus been deterred from running for public office?
The Tasmanian Electoral Commission is looking into ways that Mr Rockliff’s idea can be transformed into reality at the next state election, which is expected in 2025. The state has five electorates, identical for both state and federal lower house elections. At the state level, each returns five members. The simplest way of returning to a 35-seat house would be to increase the number of elected members in each electorate to seven.
The alternative proposal, backed by the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry, is for seven, fivemember electorates. Although they return the same number of MPs overall, the two alternatives will deliver different potential results. Under Tasmania’s Hare-Clark system, to be elected in a five-member electorate requires a candidate to secure about 16.7 per cent of the vote. With seven members, the figure is 12.5 per cent.
Five-member electorates might be construed to favour the election of candidates from major parties. Sevenmember electorates might see more minor party and independent members being elected. The desirability of either is a matter of opinion.
Five-member electorates would also involve redrawing the electoral map, with the complexity of creating two more seats and explaining the new system to voters.
Whatever system ends up being thrashed out over the coming months, a fundamental problem remains. The three parliamentary parties currently look to field five or six candidates each in five seats at a state election, for a total of about 25 to 30 for each, or in the range of 75 to 90 in total. A 35-seat house will mean parties need to find more than 100 candidates, plus independents and minor party candidates from among the Tasmanian community who are qualified, eligible, committed, talented and prepared to run.
This, once the debate about electorates is resolved, could prove to be our most vexing numbers game.