VICTORIA
The elements that drove the previous Melbourne boom – a strong local economy, population growth and infrastructure spending – remain very much in play, Melbourne’s upper end came roaring back towards the end of 2019, in the post-election revival.
Unlike Sydney, Melbourne has a tight vacancy situation and that will help keep some pressure on prices. I expect middle-market areas with good real estate bones (infrastructure, public transport, proximity to jobs nodes and good-quality dwellings) and reasonable affordability to attract strong demand. That’s particularly so for precincts that offer good alternatives in the apartment market.
The Moreland and Darebin precincts a little north of the Melbourne CBD provide great examples. These areas have character suburbs close to big jobs nodes, with good transport links, plus good affordability in their unit markets.
While Melbourne was having its postboom correction in the first half of 2019, regional Victoria was charging ahead, with many centres delivering double-digit annual growth in house prices. It’s no coincidence that regional Victoria is a national leader on jobs growth and has Australia’s lowest jobless rate.
The price growth trend has been rippling out from the capital – through Geelong, Ballarat, Bendigo, Pakenham and Warragul – to reach more distant towns such as Echuca, Shepparton, Wangaratta and Wodonga. There will be further growth in 2020 in the strongest centres like Ballarat and Bendigo.
The affordable towns of the Latrobe Valley centres, headed by Traralgon, will also attract demand from home buyers and investors.