THE BIG THREE
CAVEND ISH ,K ITTEL & GRE IPEL
These three sprinters have dominated the bunch finishes in the Tour recently. Cavendish is the race’s most successful ever sprinter, with 30 stage wins. Kittel won four a year in 2013 and 2014, though he struggled with illness and poor form through 2015. Greipel is less prolific, though he is extraordinarily consistent – he’s won at least a stage in the last 12 Grand Tours he has ridden, going back nine years. He’s also won at least a stage a year for the last six Tours. Only three riders have achieved more, though Greipel will have to go on winning until the 2020 Tour if he’s to equal André Darrigade’s record of 10.
McEwen thinks that Kittel will be the man to beat this year, especially as Cavendish has been ill. “I think Kittel is getting back to his best. I think he was sub-par last year and not quite himself. When he was ill, I think he tried to come back too quickly, and it cost him at least a year. Now he looks like he’s back where he should be and I expect him to win at least a couple of stages,” he says.
“He is so powerful. What impresses me about him is that for such a big guy he’s got a strong kick and a big acceleration. Big guys tend to wind it up slowly but he’s got a lot of punch. When you watch him sprint it doesn’t look like he’s going that fast but all you need to do is look at the guys trying to follow him. They can hardly even come out of his wheel let alone think of coming past him and beating him. “He has tactical ability, but with him I think it’s more physical. He sometimes gets out of position and can come from behind then still win. But he seems to need a bit of looking after.”
Though McEwen refuses to write off Cavendish, he acknowledges that the British sprinter is up against it this year.
“I won’t be surprised if he is at the Tour,” he says. “But I’ll be very surprised if he finishes. I’ll be mildly surprised if he wins a stage but then again, nothing should really surprise me about Cav.
“His team can’t really afford to leave him at home and he would never scratch himself from the Tour. But he can still win a stage.”
Though Cavendish won four stages last year, McEwen believes he wasn’t quite the Cavendish of 2009-2012.
“People would say, well he won four stages, but Kittel was far from his best. You can only beat who is there, but I’ve seen him more dominant. He won close sprints last year, things fell his way and he was good, but not as good as he’s ever been. He wasn’t winning by six lengths, but he was still winning and that’s all that counts. It’s a bigger achievement to win when you’re not as good as you have been. That makes him pretty special. His biggest strength is that he never accepts defeat.”
McEwen also thinks André Greipel will win at least one stage. “You’d be silly not to put money on him. He’s a similar sprinter to Kittel – strong, with a long sprint. If Kittel is at his best, Greipel may struggle, but he has a great record and he’s very consistent. He stuffs a few up but there is always one stage where he gets it right. One of his big things, apart from being strong and fast, is that he always stays calm. That can be really difficult for a sprinter when they are not winning. He doesn’t panic. He might be angry, he might not like it, but he doesn’t lose the plot. He says, ‘I’ll keep doing everything the same because it has worked before and it’s going to work again.’”
Démare is due a win, but he doesn’t have enough team support to get him in the right spot without wasting energy.