ABS jobless rate too high
A CAIRNS economist has argued the region’s employment figures are much better than indicated by the Australian Bureau of Statistics monthly labour force data.
Cummings Economics director Bill Cummings believes regional unemployment rates published by the national data office could be out by up to 30 per cent, while information collected during the census every five years was far more reliable.
He said the ABS Labour Force Series was based on responses by a sample of households around Australia, which were “probably large enough at national level to provide some reasonably accurate conclusions”, but at a regional level were not large enough to give accurate indications.
“The data clearly jumps around from month to month,” he said. “An attempt is made to provide some meaningful indications of movements over time by aggregating 12 months of data and publishing it as a ‘smoothed’ series.
“Census data has the advantage of being a 100 per cent survey, but it is only held every five years.”
Research by Mr Cummings showed Cairns’ unemployment rate sat at 7.8 per cent, according to August 2016 census data, but for the same period the ABS recorded an 8.6 per cent unemployment rate.
The Cairns region led employment growth between 2011-16 compared with Townsville, Mackay and the Fitzroy region.
Mr Cummings said the youth unemployment rate of 15 per cent, recorded by the 2016 census, was also much lower than the figure of more than 30 per cent released by the ABS at the same time.
Precruitment managing director Gayleen Toll said, while business leaders took note of data issued by governments, it was often treated with caution.
“Based on the well-reasoned arguments put forward by Cummings Economics, I believe we should treat the ABS unemployment data with a good deal of caution,” she said.
“The census data is collected directly from our citizens — the horse’s mouth, so to speak. Business leaders have a nose for what is happening in the economy generally and in their own industry.”
Ms Toll said recent experience indicated employment demand was continuing to improve in Far North Queensland.
“We are experience a shortage of skilled candidates to fill available opportunities,” she said.
The ABS was contacted for comment.
THE DATA CLEARLY JUMPS AROUND FROM MONTH TO MONTH. AN ATTEMPT IS MADE TO PROVIDE SOME MEANINGFUL INDICATIONS OF MOVEMENTS OVER TIME BY AGGREGATING 12 MONTHS OF DATA.
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