Pressures on restock hit supply

CATTLE supplies are likely to remain tight in 2018 with only a small increase expected in the adult slaughter to 7.4 million head as the herd rebuild continues, according to Meat and Livestock Australia’s 2018 Cattle Industry Projections.

Market Intelligence Manager Scott Tolmie said the dry winter and spring across many parts of Australia saw a higher than expected turn-off in the second half of 2017, temporarily halting the herd rebuilding efforts of producers in affected areas.

“This has meant many young cattle were pushed into feedlots in 2017 due to lack of decent pasture – stock that otherwise would have been finished in the paddock and come to market in 2018,” he said.

“This is part of the reason there is an expectation of tighter slaughter numbers.

“If the three-month rainfall outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology comes to fruition for February to April, it is likely to see tight supplies in certain regions, particularly through the mid part of the year.”

Mr Tolmie said carcass weights were this year expected to ease back in line with long-term trends after a record year in 2017 when carcass weights averaged 298kg.

MLA’s 2018 Cattle Industry Projections also showed the potential for a drop of about 100,000 cattle on feed after last year’s record year.

Mr Tolmie said the drop was expected to be driven by higher grain prices combined with a growing gap between feeder and grain finished cattle prices (cents/kg).

He said it was also shaping up as a challenging year for Australian beef exports with expected increases in production and exports from many major competitors, including the US and Brazil.