Poll has Shorten set for top job
Bill Shorten (right) is set to become prime minister in a clear victory at the next federal election with a Newspoll analysis showing voters prefer Labor over the Coalition in every state. Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would face a loss of more than 20 seats across the country if an election was held now, according to an analysis of Newspoll results.
BILL Shorten looks set to become prime minister in a clear victory at the next federal election with a Newspoll analysis showing voters prefer Labor over the Coalition in every state.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull would face a loss of more than 20 seats across the country if an election was held now, according to an analysis of Newspoll results for the past two quarters.
The Coalition trails Labor 47 per cent to 53 per cent on a two-party preferred basis nationwide – behind in every state but with the gap the widest in South Australia and Victoria at 46-54 per cent.
But in a sign the Opposition Leader’s tough talk on the Adani coalmine project will hurt the party, Labor’s popularity in Queensland has suffered a significant hit in the past two months.
Labor has dropped four points in Queensland from a 55 per cent average for October to December to a 51 per cent average for February to March.
It’s now the state with the tightest contest between the Coalition and Labor. The Liberal National Party are now just two points behind at 49 per cent.
The LNP’s primary vote in Queensland also recovered four points over the past quarter, up to 36 per cent.
Most of the recovery came from voters abandoning One Nation with Pauline Hanson’s party’s vote dropping two points to 13 per cent in the first quarter this year.
The Newspoll analysis also shows Mr Turnbull’s personal ratings have continued to slide since October.
He remains more popular than Mr Shorten but his average six-point lead over the Labor leader as preferred prime minister for the first three months of this year is the tightest the contest between them has been since the last election.
The analysis comes as Mr Turnbull faces losing his 30th Newspoll, the number he cited as justification while rolling Tony Abbott as Liberal leader in September 2015.
It also shows Labor has made great gains in the regions with voters since the last election, recording a seven point increase from the 30.8 per cent it scored in July 2016.
The Nationals scored a boost of two points in the regions this quarter to 37 per cent despite the Barnaby Joyce love-child scandal but the Coalition overall remains seven points down on its election result of 44.2 per cent.