Housing market tipped to slow

ONE in three owner-occupiers with interest-only home loans believe they can take advantage of negative gearing – despite the fact the perk is not available to them.

And almost one in five borrowers with such loans opted against principal-and-interest mortgages because they couldn’t afford them, according to startling new research.

The findings come from a survey by investment bank UBS, which has forecast a further slide in house prices.

In a report for investors, UBS analysts say there is a growing risk Australia will suffer a credit crunch over the next two years.

The UBS team, led by banking analyst Jonathan Mott, said the housing market was slowing as credit conditions tightened “and sentiment turns increasingly negative”.

Bank directors were becoming increasingly risk-averse and the banking royal commission was taking “a much more rigorous interpretation” of responsible lending laws, Mr Mott said.

They were among factors weighing on the outlook, he said.

“Given these headwinds, we expect a sharp slowdown in credit growth,” the report said.

“Whether this turns into a more disorderly correction remains to be seen.”

Between mid-July and early August, the UBS Evidence Lab – a division of the investment bank that specialises in surveys – polled 1008 Australians who had recently taken out a mortgage to buy a residential property. Among owner-occupiers with interest-only loans, a large cohort falsely believed they could take advantage of the negative-gearing perks available to investors.

Negative gearing is a tax concession available to investors who are paying higher costs for their assets than the income they collect.

“We were disappointed to see that 32 per cent of owneroccupiers believe they can benefit from negative gearing when this is a tax incentive that applies only to investors,” Mr Mott said. “This indicates that many mortgagors do not fully understand the product they have chosen.”

Across all borrowers with interest-only loans, 18 per cent said they opted for such a mortgage in part because they could not afford to pay both principal and interest.

Eleven per cent said a key motivation for an interest-only loan was their expectation that their property price would rise – and they could sell before the interest-only period expired.

THIS INDICATES THAT MANY MORTGAGORS DO NOT FULLY UNDERSTAND THE PRODUCT THEY HAVE CHOSEN JONATHAN MOTT