New era in jobless
Economist shines a spotlight on our region’s hardest-hit industries and predicts jobless rate could hit 19pc
MORE than 23,000 people across Cairns are likely to be on the welfare line as an expert warns the coronavirus crisis is expected to rocket the region’s unemployment rate into uncharted territory.
Economist Bill Cummings, who was tasked by Cairns Regional Council to crunch the numbers, has found unemployment in the Cairns local government area was likely to rise 14 per cent.
The report coincides with Centrelink lines which resemble the Great Depression era.
MORE than 23,000 people across Cairns are likely to be on the welfare line as an expert warns the coronavirus crisis is expected to rocket the region’s unemployment rate into uncharted territory.
Economist Bill Cummings was tasked by Cairns Regional Council to crunch the numbers and predict a realistic impact on jobs based on the current information available.
He found unemployment in the Cairns local government area was likely to reach 19 per cent – up from the current 5.5 per cent.
The figure for the wider Cairns region was 18 per cent, more than triple the current 6 per cent unemployment rate.
Government assistance packages announced so far would be inadequate to offset the impact of COVID-19.
“Thus, the indications are, despite the government stimulus measures, the unemployment rate is estimated to potentially rise to approaching 20 per cent in the city and region,” Mr Cummings found.
“It is stressed that these calculations are based on a range of assumptions …
“However, the indications are that the impact of
COVID-19 is looking like being worse for the region than the GFC, and that the government stimulus package announced to date (is) not enough to offset a large rise in unemployment in the region and the city.”
The study found some industries, such as cattle production, horticulture, primary product processing and public administration would likely feel little effect. The sharp fall in the Australian dollar could help the sugar industry, and the health sector was predicted to increase its employment ranks.
International education, arts and recreation, transport and communication, accommodation and food services and a raft of industries were expected to bear the brunt.
There was also a threat to the construction industry later in the six-month shutdown if uncertainty led to a delay in projects proceeding.
Mr Cummings said there was a good case to expect residents would ramp up their local expenditure by diverting money they would have ordinarily spent on holidays.
He estimated it would amount to about $120 million for the region – not insignificant, but nowhere near enough to counterbalance the forecast $2.8 billion hit to the Cairns tourism industry alone.