Doctors know how bad this is
AS SHE SEES IT, THE PROBLEM IS NOT HOW BAD IT IS NOW, BUT HOW BAD IT IS GOING TO GET BEFORE IT GETS BETTER
SCHOOL holidays have just started, but it’s not a vacation, it’s a staycation. Parents should be busy cancelling travel plans and preparing their kids for two weeks at home. No beach, no bush, no activities, no parks.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has urged parents to take responsibility for their children’s movements and keep track of what they do.
This message has never been more important.
Do it for the elderly and people with serious health issues, who have a one in five chance of dying if they get COVID-19.
And do it for the health professionals who are putting their lives at risk caring for the rest of us.
Over the weekend I spoke to a leading Victorian medical specialist who urged people to “stay home and save lives”.
Right now, doctors are examining patients without masks and hand sanitisers because of equipment shortages.
They’re the ones who will be tasked with deciding who lives or dies if the worst unfolds.
They deserve to be listened to. It’s the least we can do.
The medical specialist doesn’t want her name used here, but she spoke to me because she wants people to understand how serious the situation is.
“Doctors and nurses are really scared. There is a good chance we will catch it while working in general practice or in hospitals,” she said.
“How much more scary does it need to get before people understand?”
As she sees it, the problem is not how bad it is now, but how bad it is going to get before it gets better.
Federal figures show that on March 12, there were 200 cases in Australia. By March 17, there were nearly 700 cases and by March 21, there were nearly 1200 cases, mostly in NSW and Victoria.
“Australia’s cases are doubling every 3.5 days. In 14 days, we will have 12,000 to 15,000 cases,” the specialist says. Doctors like her insist the situation will be critical when — or if — we reach 44,000 cases because we won’t have enough ICU beds for them all.
“Five per cent of these cases will need ICU beds, but we have only 2229 across the whole country,” she says.
“Look at the projections: in 18 days, if we don’t change our behaviour, we will be like Italy, where more than 5000 people have died.
“Overseas, ICU beds are full. Doctors have to decide if each patient ‘deserves a bed’. In Italy, there are no more ICU beds and makeshift wards have been created.
“They are prioritising those who are likely to live, not those who are likely to die.
“If you are over 55 in Italy now, you may not get an ICU bed. If your breathing deteriorates and there are no ICU beds, you will most likely die.”
I also talked to Dr Robert Davies, a urologist, who said doctors are already undertaking triage of elective cases in order to work out which operations can be deferred. In some cases, this means even cancer patients are getting bumped off surgical lists.
“If one in five COVID-19 patients ends up on a ventilator, we’ll have to close operating theatres and turn them into ICU beds. It will be a question of working out who’s going to get a ventilator,” he says. “It’s a sobering thought that if you are 80-years-old or 25 with incurable cancer then you’re not getting an ICU bed.”
Another area of concern among health professionals is the shortages of essential items.
Dr Davies recently operated on four patients and only the surgeon and scrub nurse were allowed to wear masks, which were reused.
And yet on the weekend I saw whole families — mum, dad and three kids — all wearing matching pristine masks.
The GP agrees. She’s running out of masks and people keep stealing her clinic’s hand sanitiser. The same thing is happening in hospitals, where theft is rampant.
“Where are they getting them? We don’t have any left and soon we’ll be working without face masks,” the GP says.
The doctors hope the current measures will slow down the number of cases, but only if Australians adhere to the strict social isolation measures. Otherwise, we’ll look a lot like Italy.
Keep this in mind when the kids are whining over the next few weeks about wanting to see their friends.