LA NINA SET TO REIGN

THE Bureau of Meteorlogy has issued a La Nina alert for Australia and warned Far North farmers the weather system was now three times more likely to form in the next month than during “any typical year”.

THE Bureau of Meteorology has issued a La Nina alert for Australia and warned Far North farmers the weather system was now three times more likely to form in the next month than during “any typical year”.

BOM climatologist Greg Browning said there was “a high probability” of a soggy La Nina cycle and, should that happen, it was expected to bring an early start to the wet season and increase rainfall before Christmas.

“It’s part of a natural cycle, a La Nina happens every three to seven years, and the average rainfall increases significantly when it does occur,” he said.

“We last had a La Nina in 2017/18 and the really significant ones happened 10 years ago – we had two in a row between 2010 and 2012 – and that brought the Brisbane floods and very wet conditions across much of Queensland.

“There is also a high likelihood of above-average temperatures across Northern Australia during spring and, at this stage, extending into December.

If a La Nina event was declared it would have the most dramatic impact during spring – and the first few weeks of wet season – when abundant rains were expected to fall across the Far North agricultural areas.

“We often see an earlier start to the monsoon, so more rain falls before Christmas than in a normal monsoon year, and that can contribute to the higher than average rainfall numbers,” he said.

“A La Nina also has influence on tropical cyclone activity, we typically see more across the region during a La Nina year, and the first cyclone generally arrives a bit earlier.

“The only times Australia has had more than one severe tropical cyclone making landfall is during La Nina years so it does prime the Coral Sea and northern Queensland for above-average activity.”