La Nina weather warning
THE impending threat of La Nina to the Far North has been laid bare by the Bureau of Meteorology chief during a Senate Estimates hearing.
Cairns-based Senator Nita Green questioned BOM director Andrew Johnson about how seriously residents in the tropics should take the ocean and atmospheric weather phenomenon over the coming months.
Mr Johnson said the elevated risk of flash flooding and tropical cyclone activity should be of high concern — even if this summer’s weather was not projected to be quite as severe as the devastating Cyclone Yasi conditions of a decade ago.
“Not all La Ninas are equal,” Mr Johnson said.
“They are all different and all have unique characteristics, and the La Nina we are projecting at the moment is not quite as strong as the one we experienced in 2010-11 — although we are keeping a close watch on it.
“It has strengthened a little over the last couple of weeks.”
Mr Johnson said the tropics were particularly at risk.
“We know on average we get 11 cyclones in the Australian region, not just in eastern Australia but over on the Indian Ocean and northern parts of the Timor and Arafura Sea,” he said.
“So we are expecting at least that many or maybe a few more this summer.”
The severity of cyclones could not be predicted this far out but Mr Johnson said the bureau had some of the world’s best meteorologists on the job.
“Investments that governments have made over many years have upgraded the bureau’s capacity to anticipate tropical cyclones many days in advance compared to where we were years ago and also our capacity to predict the movement of tropical cyclones has really improved … ” he said.
Despite the short-term anticipated spike in cyclones, Mr Johnson said the bureau predicted a long-term decrease due to climate change. “But our projections are pointing to, at this stage, that although there will be a decrease in the overall number of cyclones that there is a likelihood that their intensity will increase,” he said.