Gulf cyclone likely

Tropical low forecast to develop

A TROPICAL low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is now rated a “high” chance of forming into a cyclone, according to the latest update from the Bureau of Meteorology.

The low is forecast to be located over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria on Tuesday.

The bureau has given the system a very low chance of forming into a cyclone on Tuesday, a moderate chance on Wednesday and a high chance – meaning more than 50 per cent – on Thursday.

“From Wednesday, the tropical low may become slow-moving over the eastern Gulf of Carpentaria with an increasing risk of forming into a tropical cyclone,” the Bureau has advised.

Meteorologist Rosa Hoff said a cyclone was expected to form on Thursday, if not sooner. “At this stage, conditions are looking favourable for it to develop,” she said,

“We don’t have a forecast track out for the system. We’ll continue to monitor its development. The way it develops and what happens between now, Wednesday and Thursday will influence what direction it could possibly go.”

The system may persist as a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria until the weekend. But there is also a chance it will move inland of the eastern Gulf coast sooner, or move towards the southern Gulf coast. Parts of the Cape and Peninsula have experienced heavy rainfall unrelated to the low, with Aurukun receiving 129mm overnight on Monday.

Cairns isn’t forecast to receive any significant shower activity until Friday, but king tides are due to hit the city starting on Wednesday.

The bureau is also monitoring another potential low, which may form near the southern Daly District of the Northern Territory during the next day or two, then move westwards and across the northern Kimberley from Thursday. The tropical low may move briefly over the Joseph Bonaparte Gulf, but is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.