ARMCHAIR LEGEND’S CUP GUIDE
The $8m Melbourne Cup brings together formlines from Australia and Europe. STEPHEN BRASSEL looks at who will measure up when the whips are cracking
IMPORTS head the market for the 2022 Melbourne Cup with Deauville Legend and Without A Fight popular choices, but how will they stack up against the locals? Which of the 23 starters have realistic chances? 1 GOLD TRIP
(FR) 57.5kg 6yo (H)
Starts: 15-1-4-4
Trainer: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace
Jockey: Mark Zahra
Barrier: 14
Should have finished closer in the Cox Plate when having a chequered run. Great fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe
in 2020 and despite just one win he’s a class horse. Draw works.
Verdict: Has his share of weight but can win and the wetter the better.
2 DUAIS
55.5kg 5yo (M)
Starts: 23-7-4-1
Trainer: Ed Cummings
Jockey: Hugh Bowman
Barrier: 10
Hasn’t set the world on fire this preparation but aimed at this race. Superb autumn with two Group 1s including the Australian Cup at Flemington. The Cummings name takes her a long way.
Verdict: Caulfield Cup run good enough and ready to peak. Can win but doesn’t want it too wet. Y
3 KNIGHTS ORDER
(IRE)
55.5kg 8yo (G)
Starts: 30-9-1-5
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Tim Clark
Barrier: 24
Durable stayer winning the Sydney Cup in the autumn. Did have only 51.5kg in that easier race but won the Brisbane Cup last year with 55.5kg. Loves 3200m and wet tracks but is no superstar. Might have to work from wide out which is not ideal.
Verdict: He’ll go forward and be there for a long way but doubt he can win with this weight.
4 MONTEFILIA
55.5kg 5yo (M)
Starts: 22-6-1-5
Trainer: David Payne
Jockey: Jason Collett
Barrier: 11
Won the Metropolitan last year, over 2600m at Randwick, and she’s a fourtime Group 1 winner. Caught the eye with a strong finish for fourth in the Caulfield Cup suggesting she may well handle 3200m.
Verdict: Yet to tick the 3200m box like plenty of others but she’s primed.
5
NUMERIAN (IRE) 55.5kg 7yo (G)
Starts: 30-5-8-4
Trainer: Annabel Neasham
Jockey: Tommy Berry
Barrier:7
Has been ultra-consistent of late and brave in the Caulfield Cup when a close fifth after racing handy. That was third run after a short break and he’s going to be peaking here and beautifully drawn.
Verdict: There for a long way, but the last 400m? N
6 WITHOUT A FIGHT
(IRE)
55.5kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 17-7-3-4
Trainer: Simon and Ed
Crisford
Jockey: William Buick
Barrier: 18
Consistent international raider successful twice over 2787m at York then back in distance and strong late when second at Newmarket giving weight to the winner. Has strong form for this, and if he gets some cover from the wide draw he’s hard to beat.
Verdict: Good in ideal lead-up races and rates highly.
7
CAMORRA (IRE)
55kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 17-4-2-4
Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes
Jockey: Ben Melham
Barrier: 17
Strong through the line winning the Curragh Cup two back then well beaten behind a superstar in the Irish St Leger last time.Verdict:
Form is OK without being sensational.
8
DEAUVILLE LEGEND (IRE)
55kg 4yo (G)
Starts: 7-3-3-0
Trainer: James Ferguson
Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy
Barrier:9
Likeable type who charged away to win the Great Voltigeur at York over 2385m last time and left Cox Plate placegetter El Bodegon more than four lengths in his wake. Relaxes in his races and looks primed. Never raced on a wet track but we’ll just have to take the punt. Great draw and should get perfect run.
Verdict: Fits the criteria of recent northern hemisphere three-year-old winners on the up. The one to beat.
9 STOCKMAN
(NZ) 54kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 35-8-7-3
Trainer: Joe Pride
Jockey: Sam Clipperton
Barrier:2
Built up to this with an impressive win in the 2600m St Leger at Randwick under 57.5kg then raced over 2000m at Rosehill on Saturday, running on well. Finished 13 lengths behind Knights Order in Sydney Cup.
Verdict: Superior wet-track galloper but class a query against these. 10 VOW AND DECLARE 54kg 7yo (G)
Starts: 27-4-3-4
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Blake Shinn
Barrier:4
Won the Cup three years ago but hasn’t won since, though recent runs have been vastly improved and knowing he can run the distance is a big plus – along with an ideal draw.
Verdict: Not keen on the win but not dismissing him as a place chance. N
11 YOUNG WERTHER
(NZ) 54kg 5yo (G)
Starts: 14-1-4-3
Trainer: Danny O’Brien
Jockey: Damian Lane
Barrier: 20
Only one win but placed four from six starts at Group 1 level. Unsuited in the Cox Plate but only three lengths from winner. Draw is tricky.
Verdict: Talented stayer and a rough place hope.
12 HOO YA MAL
(GB)
53.5kg 4yo (H)
Starts: 9-2-3-3
Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott
Jockey: Craig Williams
Barrier: 15
First failure in nine starts when second last in the Group 1 St Leger at Doncaster after beating three others over 2816m at Goodwood in Group 3 company.
Verdict: Finished alongside Deauville Legend three back at Goodwood but question him at 3200m. Place only.
13 SERPENTINE
(IRE)
53.5kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 14-2-1-0
Trainer: Robert Hickmott
Jockey: John Allen
Barrier: 22
Vastly improved run to sneak into the field with his second placing in The Archer. Epsom Derby winner in 2020 and Saturday’s run was his best in five starts since arriving here. Will go forward with Knights Order and the two of them will set the pace. Verdict: Led them up and very brave in Saturday’s race, but this much harder. 14 DAQIANSWEE T JUNIOR (NZ) 53kg 5yo (G)
Starts: 21-7-1-2
Trainer: Phillip Stokes
Jockey: Daniel Moor
Barrier: 13
Strong winning the Adelaide Cup over the distance then third in the Sydney Cup so no drama running 3200m but the question is can he run it quickly enough against these
Verdict: The answer is no.
15 GRAND PROMENADE
(GB)
53kg 7yo (G)
Starts: 24-8-4-2
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Harry Coffey
Barrier:1
Has had three runs back from a spell and despite being well beaten in the Moonee Valley Cup he’s better on good ground. A brave sixth behind Verry Elleegant last year. Lovely barrier but the weather gods have hardly been kind.
Verdict: Would need a firm deck to have any chance.
16 ARAPAHO
(FR) 52.5kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 26-6-5-3
Trainer: Bjorn Baker
Jockey: Rachel King
Barrier: 19
Has been up forever having had his first start of the preparation at Muswellbrook in April and here for start 15 of the prep. Continues to race well.
Verdict: Winner of six races on wet ground and that would be his best case for a place.
17 EMISSARY
(GB) 51.5kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 15-4-2-3
Trainer: Mike Moroney
Jockey: Patrick Moloney
Barrier:3
Continues to improve and Good track stats are impressive. Charged home to win the Geelong Cup and shapes as if he’ll run 3200m after coming from near last in that race. Great draw to get a soft run.
Verdict: Not the roughest by a long way but wet track could be problematic.
18 LUNAR FLARE
51.5kg 7yo (M)
Starts: 33-8-4-6
Trainer: Grahame Begg
Jockey: Michael Dee
Barrier: 12
Raced her way into the Cup with a dogged win in The Bart Cummings then got too far back and ran on well for second in the Moonee Valley Cup. Going well but hit a glitch on Monday with vets not completely happy with her and deeming a second check on her fitness was necessary.
Verdict: By 2013 Melbourne Cup winner Fiorente and as honest as they come. Rough place hope.
19 SMOKIN‘ ROMANS
(NZ) 51.5kg 6yo (G)
Starts: 24-9-6-1
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Jamie Kah
Barrier: 16
Brilliant winning the Turnbull and sent out $3.90 in the Caulfield Cup but appeared to have every chance when seventh, though not beaten far.
Verdict: Had a good prep. Will race handy but query at 3200m.
20 TRALEE
ROSE (NZ)
51.5kg 6yo (M)
Starts: 19-6-4-2
Trainer: Symon Wilde
Jockey: Dean Yendall
Barrier: 21
Good this time last year culminating in a ninth placing in the Cup behind Verry Elleegant but this time around hasn’t been sighted in three starts. Horror draw.
Verdict: Impossible to recommend. 21 POINT
NEPEAN (IRE) 51kg
22 HIGH EMOCEAN
(NZ) 50kg 6yo (M)
Starts: 22-7-5-3
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Teo Nugent
Barrier:8
Snuck into the Cup after a narrow win at Bendigo last week but needed to win more impressively to rate a realistic chance here.
Verdict: She’d need to lift significantly but sneaky place chance from the gate.
23 INTERPRETATION
(IRE)
50kg 5yo (H)
Starts: 10-3-0-1
Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace
Jockey: Craig Newitt
Barrier:6
Thereabouts in recent starts but just not finishing the races off strongly enough. Sixth in the Geelong Cup but pulled up lame, then into the race with the last slot.
Verdict: Would need to lift to finish top half of the field, though barrier helps. 24 REALM OF FLOWERS 50kg 6yo (M)
Starts: 23-5-4-3
Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman
Jockey: Damien Thornton
Barrier:5
Had three runs since coming off a long break and past two have seen improvement. Top run in the Metrop after a wide run. Peaking now and ideal draw.
Verdict: She’s not the roughest by a long way with no weight on her back.