Short Covid wave tipped

Worst will be over by Christmas, expert says

AUSTRALIA’S latest Covid-19 wave is a “soup” of variants that is yet to peak, but it should be in the “decline phase” by Christmas, epidemiologists say.

But new infection numbers are likely to be four to six times higher than the approximately 10,000 daily cases being officially recorded.

Deakin University epidemiologist Hassan Vally said it was his “optimistic take” that Australia was in for a “shorter, sharper” wave, as had recently been seen in Singapore.

“I don’t think we’re at the peak yet, but the most optimistic take might be in the next week or two,” he said.

He was “fairly confident” Australia would be “in the decline phase” by Christmas.

But we should also “never get too confident”, he warned.

“Every time we think we’ve got a handle on (Covid), there’s a surprise around the corner.”

Australia’s fourth Omicron wave started in late October, with “significant increases week on week,” Prof Vally said.

While BA5 was still the dominant variant, it was on the decline and being replaced by other strands such as BQ1 and XBB, leading to the so-called “variant soup”.

But the new variants seemed “inherently less virulent” than Omicron, so Australia could expect “waves of smaller amplitude and lower rates of severe disease”.

Immunity levels for severe illness were “pretty robust” thanks to vaccinations, boosters and previous infections, though that protection was waning.

While some have criticised the recent decision by the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation not to recommend a fifth dose of vaccine, experts believe community immunity as a whole could be boosted with renewed focus on ensuring people had their third and fourth doses.

The adult uptake of dose three was about 72 per cent of the population, and for those eligible for a fourth dose, only 24 to 48 per cent of people (depending on the state) had taken it up, said Mater Health Services director of infectious diseases Paul Griffin.

“This is below where it needs to be,” he said.

There was also a “need to reinforce the basics” to keep people safe, Professor Griffin said. This included being up to date with vaccines, staying home if feeling unwell, and wearing masks.

“If you’re a high-risk individual, or going to a high-risk venue, just pop your mask on for the foreseeable future,” he said. “It’s not a hard thing, it’s not a costly thing, it’s not perfect, but it does help a lot.”

Moderna’s chief medical officer Paul Burton said the US and European experiences suggested case numbers could be tracking four to six times higher than official statistics.

Covid remained a threat, and children were not immune from severe disease, he said.

“In the US in the first 10 months of this year, more children died of Covid than in the first 10 months of 2020 and 2021 combined,” he said.

But the company’s two new “bivalent” vaccines, which target two variants of Covid-19 in one dose, were providing additional protection, Dr Burton said.

“If you get one of these new updated booster vaccines, you will have 75 to almost 90 per cent increased antibody levels against the new variant of concern, following boosting, and that’s particularly true in people who were previously infected with Covid,” he said.