Housing market bust is over

THE residential property market is set to swing back into growth mode in 2023, with signs of market recovery already underway across the country including Brisbane which is set to be overtaken by Sydney in 2023.

Christopher’s Housing Boom and Bust Report 2023, released today by SQM Research, predicts Brisbane housing prices will rise by 5 per cent in 2023, along with Melbourne and Adelaide, but Sydney will push past all capitals with 9 per cent and Perth will follow closely at 8.

SQM Research head Louis Christopher predicts a pause in the rise of interest rates will come no later than June 2023 along with a recovery in Australian capital city dwelling prices.

“The cash rate is tipped to rise to no higher than 4 per cent and from that point, stay on hold for the duration of the year.”

SQM Research head Louis Christopher said Brisbane still had some price correction to get through in the first half of 2023, with some of the heat also expected to come out of the Gold and Sunshine Coasts where prices had climbed significantly during the pandemic.

But he expected pressure from interstate buyers to ease given NSW bounce back and the narrowing gap in the cost of housing in SEQ and Sydney.

The SQM report expected renters to see more pain in 2023 until the end of the year when dwelling completion numbers rise, housing formation slows and more renters become first home buyers.

“Asking rents are forecast to rise between 8 per cent to 13 per cent.”

Mr Christopher said it would be a challenging year for RBA “to walk their tightrope and pull off a soft landing for the Australian economy”

“However, contrary to current popular opinion, I believe they will manage to do just that.”

Mr Christopher’s base case scenario was for rates to peak no higher than 4 per cent.