Bureau’s cyclone warning

La Nina likely to bring wild weather earlier than usual

IMPACTS of La Nina and warm oceans could spell an early start to the 2022/23 cyclone season, with a 70 per cent chance of producing an above average number of Coral Sea cyclones this season.

During a La Nina year the first tropical cyclones to make landfall usually cross the coast in mid-December, significantly earlier than a non-La Nina year when the first Queensland storms usually hit in early January.

“And (La Nina) can prolong the season. Typically later in the season is when we see the most cyclone activity,” Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Pieter Claassen said.

According to the BOM Coral Sea cyclone outlook, there’s a good chance of four cyclones forming this season in the Coral Sea and one crossing the coast.

Cairns has remained largely unscathed by tropical cyclone activity in the two decades since Tropical Cyclone Steve barrelled across the coast at Smithfield in 2000, causing major flooding and a damage bill of $11m.

But despite it being 22 years since the city copped a direct hit, weather boffins say what happened in the past had no bearing on the future.

“Past systems are not an accurate predictor of future storms, (but) it’s certainly has been quieter than normal,” Mr Claassen said.

Other systems to cross the coast near Cairns include Cyclone Tasha in 2010 and Cyclone Abigail that made landfall south of Port Douglas in February 2001.

Despite fewer tropical cyclones in recent years, Australia has never had a season without at least one tropical cyclone crossing the coast since records began, according to the Bureau.

Since 1969 an average of 11 cyclones have formed in the Coral Sea, but since the year 2000 that number has reduced to nine per year.

But recent tropical cyclones have been more intense, Mr Claassen said.

The Bureau has urged Far North residents to prepare now for an early season storm.

“Stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings on the Bureau’s website or Bureau Weather app,” a BOM spokesman said.

“To receive notifications through the app, visit the notifications setting menu to get the warning information you need when it matters most.”

A three-day outlook to Monday predicting the likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in the Coral Sea is “very low” according to the Bureau.