Regional voters decisive

‘93 separate elections’, predicts uni expert

REGIONAL voters will decide the colour of Queensland’s next government.

Seats across the state are expected to change hands and minor parties including One Nation, the Greens and Katter’s Australian Party are also expected to play a role in election results.

One election watcher is expecting swings to vary so wildly from seat to seat that it will be like “93 separate elections” rather than a single state-wide trend.

Griffith University Queensland political expert Paul Williams said the election would be decided from “Nambour, north”.

But new seats and boundary redistribution will also lead to seats changing hands in the south-east, and One Nation’s resurgence could impact outcomes in western seats.

Dr Williams said the swing to and from the government, and the impact One Nation will play, will change depending on each electorate.

University of Queensland political expert Chris Salisbury said One Nation and the introduction of compulsory preferential voting – ending “just vote one” campaigns – could have unforeseen consequences.

“We just don’t know which way preferences are going to flow,” he said. “Especially for One Nation voters. They are just such a wildcard.”

Here are some of the key seats that will decide the election.

BONNEY

This new seat has been created between Broadwater and Southport and is marginally LNP. But it’s the Gold Coast seat Labor has the most chance of picking up if it is to succeed in its quest for majority government. LNP: Sam O’Connor; ALP: Rowan Holzberger; Greens: Amin Javanmard.

BUDERIM

Currently held by One Nation, but polling suggests LNP defector Steve Dickson will lose the seat to his old party. Such a scenario would require the protest party to select a new leader in the likely event they win representation at the poll.

One Nation: Steve Dickson; LNP: Brent Mickelberg; ALP: Kenneth Mackenzie;

Greens: Tracy Burton.

BUNDABERG

A marginal Labor seat whose MP, Leanne Donaldson, was forced to quit as agriculture minister in late 2016 after revelations she had an outstanding council rates debt of almost $8000, as well as unpaid rego bills. She’s in a three-cornered contest with the LNP and One Nation. ALP: Leanne Donaldson; LNP: David Batt;

One Nation: Jane Truscott.

BURDEKIN

This marginal LNP seat became marginally Labor in the redistribution. The ALP is running a high-profile local councillor and One Nation is running a former LNP MP. But more interesting is the independent vote of 24 per cent that was recorded at the 2015 election. Those factors, as well as new compulsory preferential voting, make the outcome here unclear. LNP: Dale Last;

ALP: Mike Brunker;

One Nation: Sam Cox; Greens: Mathew Bing.

IPSWICH

A safe Labor seat held by a margin of 16 per cent. However, the candidacy of Senate reject Malcolm Roberts has added a curve ball to this contest.

ALP: Jennifer Howard; LNP: TBA; One Nation: Malcolm Roberts.

LOCKYER

The retirement of the LNP’s Ian Rickuss well and truly throws open the contest for the seat, which he only just held against a One Nation onslaught led by Pauline Hanson herself in 2015. The resurgent party attracted 20 per cent of the vote in the area at the Federal election, and the seat is widely considered to One Nation’s strongest chance this poll. LNP: Jim McDonald;

One Nation: Jim Savage; ALP: TBA; Greens: Ian Simons.

MARYBOROUGH

Regarded as a miracle win by Labor in 2015. The party is talking up Bruce Saunders’ chances and it’s a seat the government must retain. ALP: Bruce Saunders; LNP: TBA; One Nation: James Hansen.

MUNDINGBURRA

The Government faces a battle in the regions where high unemployment has bitten and locals feel they’ve been ignored. Mundingburra is now one of Labor’s most marginal, but the resurgence of One Nation could throw open the race in all three Townsville-based seats. ALP: Coralee O’Rourke; LNP: Matthew Derlagen;

One Nation: Malcolm Charlwood.

PUMICESTONE

New boundaries turn this Labor seat notionally LNP and incumbent Rick Williams, who has quit Labor after being disendorsed, may have a fight on his hands after scandals involving his behaviour.

IND: Rick Williams; ALP: TBA;

LNP: Simone Wilson; One Nation: Greg Fahey; Greens: Tony Longland.