Tech, terror, temperature cloud future

CHINA’S growing military muscle, “battle-hardened” terrorists returning home primed to kill and cyber attacks by foreign powers have been identified as major threats to Australia’s security and stability in the next decade.

The first foreign policy White Paper in 14 years – the federal government’s international relations strategy blueprint – paints a sobering picture of dangers posed by China’s rising challenge to US dominance, a new hi-tech arms race, cyber warfare and environmental challenges.

Released yesterday, it gives no policy recommendations or answers but sets priorities for future governments.

The dynamic between the US and China is the big challenge. China is listed as Australia’s greatest trading partner and greatest security concern – although it is worded diplomatically.

“China will seek to influence the region to suit its own interests. As it does, a number of factors suggest we will face an increasingly complex and contested Indo-Pacific,” it says.

The paper restates our commitment to the US alliance and notes that as China competes more directly with the US, America will “for the foreseeable future, retain its significant global lead in military and soft power”.

Maritime security is of increased importance and the paper confirms our intention to “conduct co-operative activities with other countries consistent with international law” in the South China Sea.

But in an apparent warning on US President Donald Trump’s use of trade as a bargaining chip with China, it says: “There is a risk that trade and investment, which in the past have acted to restrain strategic rivalry, could fuel it instead.”

Terror threats “could worsen over the decade” with new Islamic extremist groups emerging to replace Islamic State and as some of the 200 Australians in conflict zones return home.

“We must plan on the basis that a mass casualty attack against Western targets in South-East Asia will take place.”

The paper also predicts the economic and security effects of climate change “will sharpen and increase global stresses on the supply of food and water”.