Weather impacts harvest
CONVERSATIONS in farming circles have been turning to the topic of weather.
So, given its been a massive weather week for eastern Australian cropping regions, a run around the country to look at how it has impacted the major cropping regions is in order.
Starting in the north, our attention is firmly focussed on sorghum production.
For central Queensland, while still 6–8 weeks away from its optimal sorghum planting window, December rainfall will provide a welcome boost to moisture profiles.
For southern Queensland, the 20–75mm of rain falling over the sorghum crop has been well received. It is highly likely we will see additional acres planted in December on the back of this rain.
Despite the weather, sorghum maintained its price levels from last week.
It is likely we will see farm sales intensify as producers become more comfortable with crop production.
This could put pressure on the market given current sorghum production estimates suggest we need to see Chinese engagement to account for our potential exportable surplus.
However, we are yet to see Chinese engagement at current levels.
Wheat and barley values in southern Queensland continue to track at or near import parity.
The Riverina in New South Wales and north-eastern Victoria was the epicentre of this week’s rainfall.
As expected many received 80mm on average, others received larger falls.
With harvest pace running at around 50% for wheat and
75% for barley, it is highly likely that we will see some quality downgrades in severely affected areas.
Ideally, a clear weather week ahead will be key for harvesting activity and any hope of salvaging the remaining milling quality.
In stark comparison to their northern neighbours, western Victoria’s Mallee and Wimmera regions appear to have fared better, averaging only 40mm, significantly less than forecast.
The growers in this region tell us that this comes with some relief though, as this region’s harvest pace trails
the rest of the nation.
Overall, our Victorian farmers have harvested 30% of wheat, and 50% of barley and the lower rainfall amounts will mean quality issues will likely be mitigated.
Like our western Victorian growers, South Australia too experienced less than its forecast rain over the past week.
For most, the average rainfall recorded was between 20-50mm with the largest recorded rainfalls being through Northern Adelaide and Wallaroo zones.
Harvest so far appears to have revealed limited quality
issues and indicates that 40% of wheat receivals to date are hard quality grades.
Our estimates reveal harvest pace here is progressing nicely with approximately 40% of wheat and 60% of barley harvested.
Finally, it looks like Western Australian growers have experienced the most favourable of harvest conditions so far.
They are nearing the halfway stage of wheat harvest and barley edges near 75% complete.
Reports indicate there has been no notable rainfall in any of the regions cropping areas.
Whilst it is expected to be cooler than normal over the next week,forecasts feature little rainfall and this may help minimise quality losses.
Any downgrades to date should easily be absorbed by the domestic feed markets.
ASX wheat contract traded a $12 range last week. Having opened at $266 it firmed during the week on the weather forecast before peaking on Thursday at $278.
Values then traded $4 lower on Friday, settling at $269.50 post the rain event. This suggests the rains have not yet exceeded the trades expectations.