Barley exports on rise
AS WE head into April, we are now just past the halfway mark in the 2017-18 grains export year (Oct-Sep).
Following the sub-par crop output of 2017, not surprisingly grain exports have lagged from average, though there have been a few surprises as we delve further.
For a start, WA exports have maintained export pace closer to average, no doubt a function of their late salvaged crop.
Official ABS export numbers to January have wheat exports at 1.7MMT with another 1.5MMT pencilled in for bulk wheat exports up till April.
While these numbers do indeed trend lower to average, barley exports for WA (and nationally) have more than made up for this shortfall.
The ABS does not disclose port of loading statistics for barley, however, 2.3MMT barley exports have been reported on bulk handler shipping schedules from Oct-Apr.
Last year’s record crop was the only year that surpassed the barley export pace of WA so far.
Further, while not outperforming barley on a relative basis, canola exports for the state are at around 1.3MMT – slightly higher than the five-year average pace up to April (1.2MMT).
Similarly, SA’s export performance has also been closer to average.
ABS numbers up to January reveal 1.15MMT wheat exports for the state – right on the five-year average of 1.16MMT.
The numbers for barley are similarly robust with close to 900kMT on vessel line-ups from October to April, though a far cry from 2016-17’s record pace of 1.5MMT.
ABS numbers confirm there were no canola vessels loaded prior to January – however, 260kMT has been reported on shipping schedules since, with the majority loaded out of Port Adelaide (Outer Harbour).
The official number for VIC exports shows wheat volumes up till January actually surpassing 2016-17’s pace (960kMT v 780kMT), however, this pace appears to have slowed with vessel line-ups for the remainder of 2018 so far drying up with 220kMT on the vessel line-ups till April.
This compares to 590kMT from 2016-17.
Barley again appears to have performed robustly with 650kMT on the shipping schedule till present with April so far the strongest month – 150kMT planned for the month.
Unfortunately, the momentum for exports does drop off for New South Wales and Queensland.
The depressed crop coupled with the ever-present requirements of the east coast domestic consumer has so far suppressed grain exports as a result.
Official numbers to January show just over 100kMT wheat exported – with a significant share assumed old crop sales.
This is roughly 500kMT lower than average and unfortunately, unofficial shipping schedules from January onwards do not show any marked improvement.
The situation is no better for barley nor canola and it is too early to gauge any summer crop export activity.
Combined, the view remains that Australian grain and oilseed exports will not be as restricted as originally assumed after last year’s disappointing harvest.
Nevertheless, unless something changes, the lion’s share of the task will continue to be allocated to WA and SA.