The Chronicle

IVF IS A NUMBERS GAME

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There has been much confusion, debate and backlash about the purported success rates of IVF in Australia.

In her memoir Avalanche about her emotional and ultimately unsuccessf­ul IVF experience, Australian screenwrit­er Julia Leigh accused the IVF industry of peddling optimism to its clients when the figures revealed otherwise.

Indeed, in 2016 the Australian Competitio­n and Consumer Commission stepped in to force some players in the industry to change how they advertised their success rates.

Last year, The Medical Journal of Australia published comprehens­ive independen­t research on IVF success. It followed more than 56,000 women who began IVF in Australia and New Zealand over a course of treatment up to eight cycles or the birth of a child. The data did not include women using donated eggs or embryos.

Not surprising­ly, it found the younger women are when they start the IVF process, the greater their chance of producing a “live birth” (the scientific term, sorry).

Those aged 30-34 have a 43 per cent chance after one cycle, compared to 40-44 year olds who have an 11 per cent chance.

Logically, the greater the number of cycles, the higher the chances of success. Women who begin the process at age 40-44 have a success rate of between 21 per cent (conservati­ve) to 34 per cent (optimal) at six cycles.

Women who start trying under 30 can have a success rate between 69-93 per cent after six cycles and women 30-34 had only marginally lower rates than these.

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