Justice vacancy jolts US politics

THERE’S SO MANY ELEMENTS (THAT) GO INTO THE MAKING OF A GREAT JUSTICE OF THE SUPREME COURT

DONALD TRUMP

JUSTICE Anthony Kennedy’s retirement is setting off a momentous confirmation battle for President Donald Trump’s next Supreme Court nominee that is certain to consume the Senate, inflame partisan tensions and shape the outcome of the midterm elections.

All sides quickly mobilised on Wednesday after Kennedy – a singular voice on the court whose votes have decided issues on abortion, affirmative action, gay rights, guns, campaign finance and voting rights – sent shockwaves through Washington by announcing his retirement plans.

Trump said he would start the effort to replace Kennedy “immediately” and would pick from a list of 25 names that he updated last year.

“We have to pick a great one. We have to pick one that’s going to be there for 40 years, 45 years,” Trump told supporters at a rally in Fargo, North Dakota, on Wednesday evening. “You know there’s so many elements (that) go into the making of a great justice of the Supreme Court.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell declared that the Senate “will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy’s successor this fall”.

Republicans have a longedfor opportunity to tip the balance of the court. It already has four justices picked by Democratic presidents and four picked by Republicans, so Trump’s pick could shift the ideological balance for years to come. Republicans also have a chance to make judicial nominees a top campaign issue, which could help motivate conservatives and evangelicals to vote in November.

The playbook worked in 2016, when Republicans rallied around McConnell’s successful block of then-President Barack Obama’s nominee to the court, Merrick Garland.

If Republicans unite behind Trump’s selection, there’s little that Democrats can do to stop it. Republicans changed the Senate rules last year so that Supreme Court nominees cannot be filibustered, meaning only 51 votes will be required to confirm.

Last year, Trump’s first nominee to the court, Neil Gorsuch, was confirmed 54-45, with three Democrats voting in favour. Those Democrats – Sen Joe Manchin of West Virginia, Sen Joe Donnelly of Indiana and Sen Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota – are facing difficult re-election races and could find it difficult to oppose the president’s second pick.