Form guru tips Trapeze Artist to rise in Everest
Ratings genius also expects Vega Magic and Santa Ana Lane in finish
RACING: Trapeze Artist is set to repeat his usual racing pattern and produce a peak performance to claim the $13 million The Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick today.
That is the opinion of ratings genius Gary Crispe, who believes Trapeze Artist can edge out Vega Magic and Santa Ana Lane in an Everest thriller that has attracted the best sprinters in training.
Crispe said the quality of the Everest could be best gauged by the fact 10 of the 12 runners were Group 1 winners and more than half of the field boasted a Timeform rating of 124 or higher.
The evenness of the Everest field is reflected in the betting, with Redzel the $6.50 favourite and the rank outsider, Le Romain, rated an $18 chance.
The expected heavy track makes the race even more intriguing, as does the rail placement. It is back in the true position after being out 6m.
But Crispe has used his Timeform ratings to predict a compressed Everest finish with the Gerald Ryan-trained Trapeze Artist holding the narrowest of margins over 2017 runner-up Vega Magic, with the ever-reliable Santa Ana Lane next best.
“All the form signs are positive for Trapeze Artist, who is expected to peak this afternoon third-up from a spell after two very solid efforts so far this campaign,’’ Crispe said.
“First-up on a heavy track he was third behind Home Of The Brave in the Theo Marks Stakes under 61kg, then did well enough behind Santa Ana Lane in the Premiere Stakes over 1200m at Randwick last time out to indicate he was on track for his target race this afternoon.”
Crispe acknowledged Trapeze Artist appeared to race “flat” in the Premiere Stakes and lacked the turn of foot he demonstrated in winning the TJ Smith Stakes and All Aged Stakes when last in training.
“But that is not surprising as his second-up form is way below his best,’’ Crispe said.
“Putting that effort in perspective, Trapeze Artist ran to a Timeform rating of 117, almost the same as the 118 he ran to when second-up in the Hobartville Stakes last preparation, before bouncing off that to finish a gallant third to Kementari and Pierata in the Randwick Guineas over the unsuitable 1600m trip.
“A really heavy track would cause issues for Trapeze Artist, however, given reasonable ground the son on Snitzel is certain to play a big role in the outcome.’’
Crispe said Vega Magic would go close to avenging his luckless second in The Everest last year.
“The blinkers go back on here and that combined with a drop back to 1200m ensures Vega Magic will certainly prove hard to beat, especially if he regains his peak Timeform rating of 126,’’ he said.