STATE SET FOR A SCORCHER
Queensland braces for heatwaves and bushfires this season, writes Emily Toxward
Severe thunderstorms and tropical cyclones are a part of life for Queenslanders, and while weather experts can’t foresee exactly when and where they will strike, they do have predictions about what the season to come might look like.
Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) state manager for Queensland, Bruce Gunn, says severe thunderstorm activity increases in Queensland during spring and summer, typically peaking between October and December.
“Brisbane is particularly prone to severe thunderstorms and sees significantly more severe thunderstorm days than any other capital city in Australia,” he says.
Mr Gunn added the bureau’s tropical cyclone outlook, released last month, pointed to an average to slightly below average season due to the influence of a possible El Nino in the Pacific Ocean. The weather pattern generally brings warmer and drier conditions to Queensland.
“On average one-in-four tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea cross the coast, and it only takes one cyclone to make a significant season – as we have seen with the devastation caused by Tropical Cyclone Debbie last year,” he says.
“The cyclone season usually runs from November to April, although one early season cyclone has already occurred in the southern hemisphere with Cyclone Liua, the first on record in the Fijian region, in September.
“Indications for 2018-19 are for a lower than average chance of widespread major flooding but we anticipate major flooding somewhere in Queensland every wet season.”
Research fellow at Monash University Joshua Soderholm specialises in hail and thunderstorms, and says the state is currently under an El Nino watch, and weak El Nino-like conditions are present.
“For southeast Queensland this relates to an increased probability of more severe thunderstorm days than usual; on average we have had 22.5 days per year over the last 20 years. The timing of thunderstorm events is less certain - but the general peak is November and December, regardless of El Nino,” he says.
“The increasing dry conditions associated with El Nino are likely to limit the number of thunderstorms over the populated coastal plains of SEQ, more west of Ipswich, but there’s always some which make it across.”
BOM meteorologist Adam Morgan warns that in the months ahead, Australians can expect an increase risk in heatwaves and elevated bushfire potential, a lower risk of widespread flooding and a normal risk of severe thunderstorms.
“2018 has also been exceptionally warm so far and the remainder of the year will be warmer and drier than average,” he says.
“In the coming months the chance of extreme heat across inland Australia is increased – due to current dryness of the soils and outlook for sunny skies.
“This raises the risk of heatwaves for much of southern and eastern Australia, when winds draw this towards to the coast.
“With lower rainfall and reduced grass growth over winter, many inland areas will see fire potential remain near normal, but dry forests and likely higher temperatures means eastern Australia will see increased bushfire risk.”
Meanwhile, figures released by the BOM show Queensland’s 2018 winter was dry across most of the state, except the northwest. Daytime temperatures were much warmer than usual and nights were cooler than average across southern and central parts.
In terms of mean maximum temperature, it was the fifth-warmest winter on record. Warwick, on the Darling Downs, had its highest winter mean daily maximum temperature for at least 20 years, with an average of 20.3C, and other areas such as Maryborough and Stanthorpe recorded their lowest (in the same time period) at 8C and .5C, respectively.
There were cooler than usual nights in southern and central Queensland and widespread frosts were experienced throughout winter, particularly across western districts, and the central and southern interior.
The state is now also in the throes of bushfire season and communities are urged to take proactive measures to protect themselves, their family and their homes as a run of dry conditions in hotspots across the state increases the threat of fires starting and spreading.
QFES Commissioner Katarina Carroll says bushfire prevention is a community responsibility, so all Queenslanders need to do their bit.
This includes having a bushfire survival plan, mowing the grass regularly, disposing of green waste and leaf litter, clearing gutters and removing flammable objects from the yard.
Keep up to date with your region’s forecast at bom.gov.au.