COMPLACENCY IS A KILLER PHIL SLADE
Unrealistic optimism a major danger in storm season, writes Tonya Turner
Queensland’s ‘she’ll be right’ attitude could prove costly this storm season with complacency one of the biggest threats to human safety. Suncorp behavioural economist Phil Slade says too often Queenslanders who have experienced a storm in the past, genuinely don’t believe they will be at risk, until it’s too late.
“In relation to tropical cyclones, you do get a bit of ‘boy calling wolf’ and quite often people are told it’s going to be a high category cyclone only for it to be downgraded, so they get complacent,” Mr Slade says.
“It’s only when people start to think of (being storm prepared) as an expected social norm, something that you do as a part of living in Queensland, that people are going to change their behaviours. “People will continue to think ‘she’ll be right, nothing happened last time, so it’s unlikely to happen this time’.”
He says residents need to face the reality that we live in a highly volatile climate and failing to prepare is a sure-fire way to set yourself up for disaster.
“But it’s not just about doing it for yourself, it’s about doing it for your community, it will have a broader impact as well,” he says. “Keeping yourself and your property safe can impact on others; communities are stronger when they act as group.
“It’s about having a look at what we can control and controlling the controllables. You can’t hold back the tide, but you sure can influence its impact.”
In a national survey conducted by the Queensland University of Technology and funded by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre, only about one in four people had a flood response plan. Associate Professor Amisha Mehta, researcher in risk and crisis communication at QUT Business School, says a key finding ments of ‘unrealistic optimism’.
“They may perceive their risk to be low or they have other more immediate priorities,” Dr Mehtal says.
“People can be overconfident in the face of natural hazards.
“They can overestimate their ability to respond to or control an event and these factors can limit an accurate evaluation of risk and the implementation of appropriate preparedness or response actions.”
Familiarity with past events and false alarms can also bias some of our behaviours.
“The problem with this is that our memory of a past event or false alarm may not be accurate,” Dr Mehtal says. You can’t hold back the tide, but you sure can influence its impact.
The assumption that emergency services and authorities will take care of everything is also a dangerous one.
“We do see positive preparedness behaviours from the community when they are warned of the possibility of flood and other events,” she says.
This is an important time for emergency management organisations to engage less prepared, but potentially affected, communities.
We certainly depend on and trust the Bureau of Meteorology, councils and emergency management organisations for information during events.
Their expertise in assessing the current and potential situation is critical for our decision-making. Our reliance on emergency management organisations, however, depends on our needs and perceptions.
“Some people need support to evacuate homes,” Dr Mehtal says.
“Some community members expect a uniformed officer to knock on their door and alert them of an impending evacuation, but that’s not always possible.
“We need to be more self-reliant as a community and individuals.”
All around the world, people interpret risk differently depending on their past experiences or lack of, language proficiency and connectedness to the community.
Past experience came into play when people had to decide whether to evacuate ahead of catastrophic Hurricane Katrina in the US in 2005.
The previous year, hundreds of thousands of people in Louisiana and Mississippi evacuated ahead of Hurricane Ivan only for the storm to weaken from a Category 5 to Category 3 causing minimal damage, leading many to assume the same would happen with Katrina.
There is no shortage of reports of people around the world ignoring severe weather warnings including floods, heavy snowfalls, storms and hurricanes and paying the price for it. When Hurricane Sandy hit the US in 2012, the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center found that only 23 per cent of people located on the immediate coast, who were most in harm’s way, made plans for what they would do if they had to evacuate.
Studies also show that people underestimate the amount of time they may be affected by a severe storm – that it may not just be a case of surviving the night, but living without power, water, medication and supplies for potentially days or even weeks.
Managing anxiety, stress and fear in the lead up to a storm is also an important consideration during extreme weather events.
Experts agree the more prepared you are, the better you will be able to alleviate these feelings and combat anxious thoughts.
Staying informed and up-to-date with the latest news and weather reports will also help, along with talking about your feelings with loved ones, catching and changing unhelpful thoughts, accepting the forces of nature, staying in the “now”, practising deep breathing, engaging in activities you enjoy and believing that even if disaster does strike, you’ll be able to cope with the
aftermath.