China beefs up trade
UNOFFICIAL meat trade between China and its neighbours has been curtailed through stricter border controls, and it’s impacting global beef trade.
Rabobank’s Beef Quarterly update, released on Monday, notes a sharp decline in the volume of trade to China through unofficial channels in the last quarter of last year, after border controls tightened in the wake of African swine fever outbreaks.
Rabobank’s senior animal proteins analyst, Angus Gidley-Baird, said unofficial imports were estimated by comparing Chinese beef consumption with official import and production figures.
Mr Gidley-Baird said comparing the amount of beef imported by Hong Kong and Vietnam with local population figures showed “they’d be consuming well and truly above any other Asian nation in terms of beef consumption per capita if you assumed it all stayed there”.
The report suggests increased Chinese border enforcement has slowed the unofficial bovine trade from Hong Kong and Vietnam into China, however this could easily be reversed.
Despite the crackdown, beef imports into Hong Kong last year increased 12 per cent for meat and 9 per cent for offal.
Rabobank expects the volume of beef in Hong Kong freezers could now be high and its imports will be slow in the first half of this year.
The report said increased policing of borders was expected to continue, which would encourage beef exporters to explore direct export routes to China.
This suggests official imports to China this year will record strong growth – a positive for Australia, which has direct access to the Chinese market. However, Mr Gidley-Baird said price sensitivity as a result of a slowing economy would be an issue to watch.
Meanwhile, the amount of meat imported by Vietnam from India dropped significantly in the last quarter of last year.
The report said this was a direct reflection of the decreased product flow from Vietnam to China.
Vietnam was India’s largest export market and despite the reduction, Mr Gidley-Baird expected India could respond quickly if prices were to rise again.