Morrison in fight of his life
Rating the ‘pessimism percentage’
FORGET the GDP, terms of trade and per-capita growth figures. Within the government right now it’s all about the “pessimism percentage”. How do Coalition MPs rate their chances of survival?
One minister (who’s staying) puts the Coalition’s chances of victory as low as 10 per cent. Another (who’s leaving) suggests a more optimistic 35 per cent.
These glass-half-empty assessments were made even before yesterday’s latest woes for the government.
Unnamed Nationals helpfully started musing about toppling their leader Michael McCormack either before or after the election.
Malcolm Turnbull chimed in from London with a view that he was cut down because the hard right were worried he would actually win the election.
Turnbull and Tony Abbott then resumed their decade-old war over energy policy, from opposite sides of the planet.
Speaking at a Warringah candidates’ forum yesterday, Abbott, the long-time local member, performed another flip-flop on the Paris Agreement. After announcing Australia’s emissions reduction target as Prime Minister, then arguing Australia should quit the Paris Agreement when Turnbull was in charge, he now believes it’s OK to stay in the deal.
Abbott argues PM Scott Morrison has dropped the “emissions obsession”, so it’s now fine to remain in this binding international agreement.
For good measure, he suggested the Snowy Hydro Corporation, now wholly owned by the Commonwealth Government, should buy or build a coal-fired power station.
Abbott’s Snowy Coal 2.0 proposal drew a swift response from Turnbull, who argues new coal-fired power is simply no longer viable. “Today the cheapest form of new dispatchable or base load energy is renewables plus storage,” he tweeted.
Whoever you choose to believe, another tit-for-tat between these two deposed prime ministers is the last thing the current Prime Minister needs. It shines a light on enduring feuds and highlights the policy conundrum Morrison continues to face.
Does the government want to see new coal-fired power built in Australia? Is it willing to use taxpayers’ money to underwrite its construction? Who knows?
The government is dancing around these questions, too afraid to offend either its procoal Liberal Party base or the pro-climate voters in marginal seats. Technically, the Coalition remains willing to underwrite coal, but no commitments have been made or contracts signed. Time is running out before the government goes into caretaker mode.
Energy Minister Angus Taylor apparently has dozens of proposals sitting on his desk. He needs to make a decision. Once the campaign begins it will be too late.
Veteran Liberal Party pollster Mark Textor won’t publicly predict what’s going to happen at the May election, but points out “there is a very high transactional cost in disrupting the political process when the voters don’t have a franchise in that”.
For all of Morrison’s hard work and campaigning strengths, the cost of dumping not one, but two prime ministers, is still being felt.
Bill Shorten, meanwhile, revealed his campaign theme this week. He wants this election to be a “referendum on wages”.
Low wages growth is a real problem for many voters. As Mark Textor says, “there’s a deficit of hope” right now when it comes to living standards.
Whether Labor would boost wages for most workers, though, remains unclear. Shorten has promised a “living wage” to replace the “minimum wage”, but hasn’t spelled out exactly what this would be.
As soon as he does, business will be able to explain what this higher wages bill might cost in terms of lost jobs.
The detail matters, but the main aim for Shorten is to cement the general impression in voters’ minds that he can do something about their dismal pay packet.
Scott Morrison by contrast, wants this election to be a referendum on tax and border protection. He went to great lengths this week to keep the focus on tough borders, travelling all the way to Christmas Island for a photo opportunity.
It looked very much like an expensive stunt, but it may be working with at least one audience: those on Manus Island and Nauru. It’s been a week since the Medivac laws came into force and still no one has applied for a medical transfer.
The prospect of being sent to Christmas Island for medical care may have given some asylum seekers pause for second thoughts.
Morrison’s challenge now is to keep the focus on his issues, fight the election on his ground and lift the spirits of his pessimistic troops.