What to expect as La Nina finally ends
THE Bureau of Meteorology has declared La Nina is finally over, bringing an end to years of rainy conditions and record floods.
Australians have spent the past three summers with La Nina, where waters warm around the country’s north bringing increased rainfall and cooler daytime temperatures for much of Australia.
The weather event has led to devastating rains that have caused unprecedented floods across many parts of Australia. However, those conditions are set to ease in the coming months as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation moves to a neutral position.
A neutral ENSO would bring with it more neutral conditions, with the calmer weather expected to last through autumn and into winter, the BOM said.
However, the BOM says the equally devastating El Nino weather event – bringing reduced rainfall and warmer temperatures and increasing the fire danger in Australia’s southeast – could be active next summer.
The BOM has issued an El Nino watch, predicting a 50 per cent chance that the weather event will occur by the end of the year.
“The frequency of high fire danger ratings and risk of a significant fire danger season in southeast Australia are significantly higher following an El Nino year,” the BOM says.
Australia last issued a El Nino alert in the summer of 2018-2019, months before the black summer bushfires.
The El Nino watch is not the only measure BOM is using to predict that conditions will get drier.
“The Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently very strong over the Pacific Ocean but is forecast to move into the Atlantic Ocean in the coming fortnight,” it says.