DRY SEASON TIPPED TO IMPACT ON GRAIN YIELD
WHEAT farmers are facing a lean year, according to the nation’s agricultural forecaster, which has trimmed its fullyear production forecast citing below-average rainfall in key cropping regions.
Production could slide to 21.6 million tonnes in the year to June, down 38 per cent on last year, according to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences. That’s down from an estimate of 24.2 million tonnes and well shy of last year’s record 35 million tonne haul.
The bureau said rainfall was below average in most cropping regions in June and highly variable over the following two months.
“Seasonal conditions were mixed for crops during winter and as a result the condition of crops at the start of spring varied significantly,” ABARES chief commodity analyst Peter Gooday said.
The forecast was for average levels of spring rainfall in most cropping regions, Mr Gooday said. That doesn’t augur well for areas such as South Australia’s Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas, where below-average rainfall in early winter delayed the germination of crops, he said.
Victoria fared a little better, with crops mostly in good condition at the start of spring.
Crops in central western New South Wales were “moisture stressed” at the end of winter and in need of early spring rain, while many in Western Australia’s north were unlikely to be harvested.