BONNEY OR SLIDE
New Coast seat crucial in poll shootout
THE Gold Coast has been thrust on to centre stage of the November 25 state election with at least two local seats to prove decisive in the final outcome. In a shootout reminiscent of 1930s American outlaws Bonnie and Clyde, Labor has identified the electorates of Bonney (held by the LNP with a 2.2 per cent margin) and Gaven (LNP, 2.8 per cent) as two seats it must win to retain power – and local strategists from both sides admit these close contests will ensure the Gold Coast will for the first time in decades be the focal point of a state election.
THE new Gold Coast electorate of Bonney is the killer seat for the Palaszczuk Government and must be won to retain majority government and stop Labor being gunned down at the November 25 poll.
Political analysts and party insiders admit Labor must pick up a seat on the Glitter Strip to counter losses expected in the far north.
The Bulletin can reveal Commonwealth Games Minister Kate Jones (below) will be the campaign X-factor.
The so-called Minister for the Gold Coast will make a number of appearances on the Glitter Strip before the poll to pump up the Government’s investment here.
“The Gold Coast is critical,” a party insider told the Bulletin.
“There’s mixed opinion about the Sunshine Coast in terms of being critical — it’s not as big at the Gold Coast. Townsville is a real problem at the moment.”
Adjunct Professor Stephen Stockwell from Griffith University agreed Labor must win at least one Coast seat to help make up for losses up north.
“It will make life easier,” he said. “But if they are dependent on that happening they’re in a dangerous place.
“It is unlikely there will be a shift on the vote on the Coast from the last time.”
Professor Stockwell rated Bonney and the neighbouring seat of Gaven as being similar in terms of opportunity presented to dent the LNP machine on the Coast.
Former long-term Burleigh MP Christine Smith believed Labor was a better chance in Gaven due to the amount of resources being tossed at the seat by the party.
“If we are ever going to win or stay in government, the Gold Coast needs to be taken seriously,” she said.
“Gaven is a distinct possibility. The candidate — Meaghan Scanlon — is a good candidate. She has worked hard and has a lot of support.
“Southport is a possibility. Bonney with Rowan Holzberger — I’d like to think he could win it but I’m hesitant to call it.
“Gaven, just given the support of the party office, I think we can win it. The rest of the seats are struggling.”
Former Gaven MP Dr Alex Douglas believed Labor could win three seats. “They (Labor) will win Gaven easily. They will win Bonney as well,” he said.
“And I think the Labor Party will get close to winning Southport. I think Rob Molhoek is in real trouble.”
All political commentators believe the key to outcomes in each seat will be compulsory preferential voting and the support for One Nation, other minor parties and independents.
The flow of preferences from One Nation and the Greens to Labor could hurt the LNP on the Coast and in Brisbane.
In Bonney, a 2.2 per cent margin favours the LNP making it the Coast’s most marginal seat. A Reachtel poll conducted for the Bulletin in August showed 40.6 per cent support for the LNP with Labor trailing on 31.8 per cent. One Nation had 12.8 per cent of the vote and 7.0 per cent of voters remained undecided.
In Gaven, which includes Pacific Pines and Nerang, 37.6 per cent of residents surveyed intend to vote for the LNP, followed by 29.7 per cent for Labor. About 10 per cent of voters were undecided.
The margin for sitting LNP MP Sid Cramp is 2.8 per cent. He won the seat in 2015 by just 912 votes.
Labor has yet to endorse six candidates in the Coast’s 11 seats giving the LNP a gifted start.