YAY OR NEIGH
You’ve done your research, consulted your gut, and picked your horse. Good news — here’s why it can win the Melbourne Cup. Bad news — here’s why it can’t win the Melbourne Cup. TREVOR MARSHALLSEA runs his eye over the field.
1. HARTNELL $26 WHY: Class galloper, in-form young jockey in Damian Lane, and trainer has the right surname, in James Cummings, grandson of Bart. You know he’ll get the trip after his third in the race last year.
WHY NOT: Staying preparation notwithstanding, he hasn’t looked the horse he was last spring. He was a flat ninth last start over 2000m. 2. ALMANDIN $9.50 WHY: Won the race last year so clearly he stays 3200m. Only had 52kg then and while he’s up to 56.5 this time, that’s not a huge leap. Plus he bolted in over 2500m at Flemington two starts back under 61kg. Loves the track, and has one of the world’s top jockeys in Frankie Dettori.
WHY NOT: Back-to-back Melbourne Cup winners are fairly rare, with five since 1861. It’s hard enough to win one. 3. HUMIDOR $10
WHY: Got frighteningly close to the great Winx last start in the Cox Plate after a decent fifth in the Caulfield Cup. Has a master trainer in Darren Weir and top jockey in Blake Shinn, both of whom have won the race before. Is in the most winning age group, at five.
WHY NOT: He hasn’t been past the Caulfield Cup distance of 2400m. A slight distance query. 4. TIBERIAN $26
WHY: Has a strong form line with four wins from past five starts in good Group races in France, where he’s won up to 3000m. Has been working impressively since arriving. Experienced jockey in Olivier Peslier and has the Cup’s equal most successful saddlecloth number of 4.
WHY NOT: Will start from out by the car park in barrier 22, hasn’t run in Australia yet, and all four recent wins were in fields of only seven or fewer.
5. MARMELO $8
WHY: Produced probably the run of the race, outside the winner, in rattling home for sixth in the Caulfield Cup. Previous start won the prestigious Prix Kergorlay in France over 3000m, often a leadup for Cup-bound Europeans. Has the top-ranked jockey in the world, our very own Hugh Bowman.
WHY NOT: Has barrier 16, though it shouldn’t be a big worry as he settles back in the field. Has only had 11 starts in his life, but again, not a huge worry as that’s how they do it over there. 6. RED CARDINAL $18
WHY: Highly rated European trained by Germany’s Andreas
Wohler, who won three years back with Protectionist. Won a big 3200m race in the US two starts back, and has last year’s winning rider Kerrin McEvoy, who’s in great touch.
WHY NOT: Awful barrier (23). They seldom win from there. Also hasn’t run in Australia yet, and was only a moderate fifth in Marmelo’s Kergorlay last start, though that was under 60kg, 5kg more than he’s got here. 7. JOHANNES VERMEER $10
WHY: This European has got a taste of it here, with two super runs for a second and third, in the Caulfield Cup, when unlucky not to win. Has the master Irish trainer in Aidan O’Brien, who’s just finished winning a record-equalling 25 Group 1s this year. Great barrier.
WHY NOT: Hasn’t raced past 2400m, and until you see them do it, there’s always a doubt. Chance his connections might have really felt the Caulfield Cup was his main aim. Might need luck from back in the field on the inside. 8. BONDI BEACH $61
WHY: This former European now lives here as part of the Melbourne Cup-happy operation of owner Lloyd Williams, and the horse at least sounds like he should be winning a big race in Australia with a name like that.
WHY NOT: He never does.
Finished 13th and 16th in his two tries at this race. Might have had his biggest win in drawing barrier one. 9. MAX DYNAMITE $14
WHY: Produced a terrific run when second in this race two years ago and has an astute trainer of stayers in Willie Mullins. Won his last start over 3400m in Ireland under a whopping 73kg, which means a nice little 19kg drop in weight for this.
WHY NOT: That win was against only five rivals in a race worth a piddling $18,000. It was also only his fourth run since that Melbourne Cup second two years ago, so something’s gone wrong. Is getting a bit old now too.
10. VENTURA STORM $35
WHY: Has Glen Boss aboard, who won thrice on Makybe Diva. Stable’s running hot too. Nice barrier (six) and he ran a decent second only six lengths behind Winx two starts back.
WHY NOT: Followed that run with a hollow flop in the Caulfield Cup, when 13th as one of the top fancies. Hasn’t won past 2500m. 11. WHO SHOT THEBARMAN.
Scratched. 12. WICKLOW BRAVE $67 WHY: Trained by the canny, wily, and all the rest of it Willie Mullins, and has a much better starting gate this year than last, when he jumped
from 24 and finished 22nd. So maybe, afforded better luck in running than then, he can do something. Also has the equal-top saddlecloth number for this race.
WHY NOT: Plodded along without doing too much in the big staying races in Europe this year. His last win was over hurdles, and he’s now a nine-year-old, and they just don’t win this race. 13. BIG DUKE $20 WHY: Barrier five has hatched more winners (eight) of this race than any other gate. Has the master trainer in Darren Weir, and last autumn was a decent third over this distance in the Sydney Cup. WHY NOT: Who Shot Thebarman
was second in that race and won the Moonee Valley Cup in which Big Duke was only fourth last time out. 14. US ARMY RANGER $61
WHY: You could maybe hope for some Lloyd Williams magic, and he’s from that groovy five-year-old demographic.
WHY NOT: Even Lloyd might be surprised if he wins. Was third in a race at Royal Ascot in June which was only slightly shorter than the Sydney-to-Hobart, but was last, of only six, at his last run. 15. BOOM TIME $26 WHY: Won the Caulfield Cup, usually a good guide to this. Is drawn well and the stable is flying.
WHY NOT: He was a despised $51 shot when he won at Caulfield, hasn’t won past that distance of 2400m, and flopped over this trip in the Sydney Cup last autumn, though that was on a bog track. 16. GALLANTE $81
WHY: Lloyd Williams, again. Plus barrier 18 is the only gate to never have spat out the winner of this race, so it’s due.
WHY NOT: Thank heavens the dud barrier has gone to an appropriately duddy horse. He came 20th here last year. He maybe might improve on that this time. Maybe. 17. LIBRAN $41
WHY: You might be a Libran, so might be inclined to back it. Has a nice barrier, a top trainer-jockey combo in Chris Waller and Dwayne Dunn, and has come sixth, then fifth, then second in his past three starts, so he’s hinting at something.
WHY NOT: That second was behind the dreaded Who Shot Thebarman in that Moonee Valley Cup, so he’ll find this lot a bit tougher, like taking a hat-trick in the under-16s then getting thrown into an Ashes Test. 18. NAKEETA $35 WHY: Speaking of the Ashes, he’s trained by a fellow named Jardine, and they’re known for coming here and sticking it up us. But also, he’s got strong staying form over trips like this and beyond in Britain, including winning the Ebor Handicap over 2787m at York last start, which demands toughness with its long uphill straight.
WHY NOT: Worst number on the saddlecloth, with only one Melbourne Cup winner since the dawn of time. Rotten barrier (19), and is going to have to work hard from there or be trapped wide. 19. SINGLE GAZE $41 WHY: You might like female jockeys and Kathy O’Hara is on this one, as she was in the Caulfield Cup when she ran a meritorious second. WHY NOT: That tyranny of distance, again, since the 2400m of the Caulfield Cup is the longest
journey she’s been over. And of course, only one female jockey has ever won this race, so after one in 155 years you’d be wanting two in three years. 20. WALL OF FIRE $13
WHY: Has Craig Williams aboard, who’s surely due to win this race, and should hopefully be able to negate his iffy barrier (15). Has had a run in Australia and it was a good’un, a second to Lord Fandango, who subsequently ran well in the Caulfield Cup.
WHY NOT: Despite some decent form has run twice over 3200m for a sixth of 14 and an eighth of 12, so the distance again gnaws away at you. And a lot can still go wrong from gate 15. 21. THOMAS HOBSON $18
WHY: Another from the Mullins stable and maybe his best chance. In the space of four days at Royal Ascot in June he won over 4000m and was then second over 4355m, so this trip will be like one to the shops and back. Also has the wonderful Brazilian Joao Moreira on board. WHY NOT: The luck of the draw (20) again, or the lack of the luck. 22. REKINDLING $13
WHY: Great barrier (4) and beat Wicklow Brave over 2800m in Ireland three runs back. Has a tiny weight on his back at 51.5kg, down 6kg from his last-start fourth.
WHY NOT: He’s quite young. At home he’d be called a three-yearold for another two months. Think of taking your toddler to the show. 23. AMELIE’S STAR $20 WHY: Trained by Weir, ridden by Dean Yendall, who’s in form. Won impressively at Flemington over 2500m two starts back. WHY NOT: Some doubt about her getting the journey. 24. CISMONTANE $51 WHY: Sydney trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott have been going well in Melbourne this spring, and this horse won the 2500m Lexus at Flemington on Saturday to get into this field, a path taken by many winners of this. A five-year-old with a light weight. WHY NOT: He is, in fact, carrying Beau Mertens, who’s still an apprentice, and they don’t usually win this event.