WHAT HAPPENS NEXT

SCENARIO 1

Peter Dutton gets the numbers to cause a spill. Malcolm Turnbull chooses not to stand and anoints Scott Morrison, who takes Turnbull’s numbers and some from Dutton. ScoMo wins.

SCENARIO 2

Peter Dutton gets the numbers to cause a spill. Scott Morrison and Julie Bishop stand, Moderate vote is split between Bishop and Morrison, leaving Dutton the winner.

SCENARIO 3

Peter Dutton fails to get the numbers. Malcolm Turnbull remains Prime Minister.