PAUL WESTON:
RACE TO REPLACE HEATS UP
WHO will be the Gold Coast’s next MP? The LNP will hold candidate preselection for Moncrieff tomorrow. This is arguably the most difficult political race staged here for picking a winner.
Steven Ciobo, who is retiring after being the sitting MP since 2001, enjoys a margin of almost 15 per cent. Labor will not win this federal seat at the poll, either on May 11 or 18. So whoever wins LNP preselection is guaranteed to go to Canberra. They will represent our city. All of us need to know how the voting works.
None of the LNP insiders approached for this column is sure of the outcome, but they say up to 400 party members who make up the Moncrieff branch are eligible to vote. They expect 50 per cent to turn up at Emmanuel College for that process.
Each candidate gives a speech, as their rivals sit outside. This is a Melbourne Cup-size field.
The race leaders are Mr Ciobo’s staffer Karly Abbott, experienced campaigner Bibe Roadley, businesswoman Fran Ward and Gold Coast City councillor Cameron Caldwell.
“The females on the Gold Coast are getting stronger and stronger,” a senior male LNP source says. “The men are just dropping off. We have good female representation with Karen (Andrews), Jann (Stuckey) and Ros (Bates).”
Prime Minister Scott Morrison gets a vote, as does State LNP leader Deb Frecklington and up to a dozen from head office in Brisbane. Mr Ciobo is one vote, but will
his influence be greater?
“He hasn’t been in the electorate as much because of the jobs he’s had (overseas),” the source says.
“There’s the Moncrieff Women’s Association – they meet every second week. There’s a lot of them. They’re very cliquey. The majority are over 55. It’s become like a bowls club forum.”
Chair of the Moncrieff executive is Lynda Woods, from stockbroking and wealth management firm Morgans. You can hear her most days on ABC 91.7’s morning program with Bern Young, providing an insight into the financial markets.
Everyone suggests the winner will be a woman. They are worthy candidates. Selecting one of them will also help the party, given the retirement of several of its senior female MPs.
A female Moncrieff member says: “The vast majority don’t like the idea of a woman for a woman’s sake. I just think the best three candidates running this time are women. I would find it mind-blowing if it wasn’t a woman (who won). There really isn’t a standout male candidate as it happens. Cameron is the most wellknown but he doesn’t have major connections here.
“He’s rocked up in Moncrieff. The Gold Coast is quite parochial, as you know.”
Karly Abbott has strong support but could be at a disadvantage. Some members might not vote for her because she is “a staffer”.
Bibe Roadley’s efforts to consult with influential senior Coast party members is not hurting her strong chances. They are talking her up.
So the female Moncrieff source will only predict it is between Ms Abbott and Ms Roadley. “I’ve spoken to people who say ‘who do we choose?’,” she says.
So here’s the thing. None of the candidates in the first round of voting will get the required 50 per cent. The count will continue, the weakest candidate in each round eliminated. Pack your sandwiches, it will be a long day.
Remember the 2002 Winter Olympics at Salt Lake City? Four fighting for the lead in the final lap of the 1000m speed skating. There is a wipeout. Yes, remember that image of Australian Steven Bradbury, the only athlete left standing, winning gold?
Will the girls crash here and Cameron Caldwell, like Bradbury at the last turn, be the most unlikely winner?