Two keys to winning Currumbin
POSTAL votes and preferences will determine if the LNP can hang on and hold the seat of Currumbin, stopping more pressure on the leadership of Deb Frecklington.
The Opposition leader was on the Gold Coast yesterday and vowed not to stand down if the party loses the southern city seat in the by-election.
“Absolutely not. Let’s wait for the votes to come in. This isn’t over yet. We know that thousands were unable to vote in the by-election,” Ms Frecklington said. “We know that there are still thousands of votes left to be counted. It’s going to be very, very close.”
At 68 per cent of the count last night, the LNP’s Laura Gerber had 44 per cent of the vote.
Labor’s Kaylee Campradt is on almost 39 per cent of the vote, slightly higher than the ALP’s vote in the 2017 campaign. The Greens vote has increased to almost 11 per cent.
Experienced campaigners suggest Labor could get as much as 70 per cent of preferences from the Greens.
Their verdict on Saturday night was “inconclusive” but that progressed yesterday to “we could win this seat”.
The LNP expects to do slightly better than Labor on postal votes, having sent out applications. Almost 3000 of those votes are in the balance.
A poll insider told the Bulletin yesterday: “Kaylee Campradt could win on Green preferences. For her, looking at the vote on Saturday night, it was inconclusive. But she is in a much stronger position today.
“The only thing that might help the LNP would be postal votes, if they trended more to the Liberals. But on these current figures, it is very similar to what happened in Gaven. It was almost exactly the same.
“Labor’s Meaghan Scanlon was behind on the primary vote but very strong Green preferences got her across.”
Labor sources suggest whatever the outcome it is a poor first-up electoral result for LNP leader Ms Frecklington.
“From what we are seeing, it’s extraordinarily close,” a Labor source said. “A Labor government last won a seat like that off an Opposition in 1951. The blame game has already started (in the LNP). But it is too close to make a call.”
Ms Frecklington was asked about the impact of retiring Currumbin LNP MP Jann Stuckey, who referred to Ms Gerber in a national radio interview as a “blow-in”. “It was disappointing and very difficult for Laura to have those unprovoked attacks. We ran a positive campaign about the issues that worried the people of Currumbin,” she said.
Labor ran on their candidate Ms Campradt being from family which has lived for decades in the electorate.