READY, SET, VOTE
ELECTION 90-DAY COUNTDOWN SPECIAL
LABOR’S Meaghan Scanlon and the LNP’s Laura Gerber are both tipped to retain their marginal Gold Coast seats at the state election, according to poll analysts.
Political academics and campaign insiders also expect Labor to gain a third term of government at the October ballot.
But there is a proviso – Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, politically, cannot afford a second wave of coronavirus to creep across Queensland borders.
Dr Paul Williams, senior lecturer in humanities at Griffith University, said: “It’s potentially volatile. I think the northern end of the Gold Coast is potentially ripe for change. In the deep south it obviously becomes more conservative.”
Before the pandemic worsened, both the Greens and One Nation were expected to play a major role in the survival of both Ms Scanlon in Gaven and Ms Gerber in Currumbin.
In the March by-election, Ms Gerber benefited from One Nation preferences. She won with 43.76 per cent of the primary vote, beating Labor’s Kaylee Campradt who secured 38.34 per cent of the vote.
In the 2017 poll, Ms Scanlon, then 24, obtained 43.07 per cent of the primary vote, compared to 46.11 per cent for then sitting member, the LNP’s Sid Cramp.
She won on Green preferences from candidate Sally Spain, who will again run in October. But One Nation is standing a candidate this time.
Ms Scanlon’s main rival is hard-working LNP candidate Kirsten Jackson.
“One Nation is wasting its time,” Dr Williams said.
“In times of crisis you see marginal parties, fringe parties, their vote collapses.
“Now we saw the Greens vote actually climb at the beginning of the pandemic but it seems to be coming down, so expectedly the Greens are suffering from big-picture politics where people go back to the major parties in times of crisis and the minor parties tend to be locked out of the discourse.”
Labor strategists believe Ms Scanlon will survive and many Coast LNP insiders concede that is likely.
But the party remains confident about retaining Currumbin, where Ms Gerber faces a strong candidate in Labor’s Kaylee Campradt.
“Laura Gerber is out there knocking on doors. She is seeing people. She is seen as amicable and approachable, the oldies are warming to her,” an LNP insider said.
Dr Williams said Ms Scanlon should approach the campaign with some confidence.
“Labor would be panicked about Gaven. But Labor has obviously held that seat before, it’s not like a one-off that they are holding it. There are obviously strong pockets of Labor voters in that seat.
“There’s no evidence on the ground (that Labor will lose) and again all things being equal if it was a tired Labor Government after two terms looking for a third term and you had a charismatic Opposition leader in (Deb) Frecklington, then yes you they would be worried, they hold by less than 1 per cent. But these are not normal circumstances.”
He said Ms Gerber should similarly be confident, but there remained a wildcard in her campaign. LNP strategists maintain Ms Frecklington is popular in Currumbin.
“Labor’s not going to win Currumbin in a general election if it couldn’t in a byelection,” Dr Williams said.
“That will stay in LNP hands. Laura Gerber has had some big sound bites. She seems to be off to a good start, a competent performer.
“(Retired Currumbin MP) Jann Stuckey might be a thorn in their side. She would still have a loyal following on the Coast. If she makes some comments during the campaign, if she sponsors a third-party independent and then spruiks for that independent and the vote peels off Laura Gerber and they preference Labor over the LNP – but that’s problematic.”
Dr Williams said the coronavirus was a problem because it was so unpredictable. The same voters who a month ago wanted the Queensland-NSW border open became silent once a second wave started in Victoria, he said. If it hit Queensland, they would turn on Labor.
“So it’s a no-win situation for Palaszczuk, unfortunately for her. COVID clouds the crystal ball. If there is second wave it will probably kill off the Palaszczuk Government.”