AUSSIES’ FEAR FACTOR IS GONE
A galvanised and confident England unit has arrived on our shores convinced it can defeat the Aussies, who have lost their aura of invincibility at home
When it comes to Test cricket there’s nothing like an Ashes series. Absolutely nothing beats it.
After a couple of really tough years getting through the pandemic here in Oz, it’s brilliant the Ashes are here with crowds set to swarm the stadiums. Australians need this lift and they also need the Aussies to perform.
Everyone talks about how the Ashes always brings out the best in the players – it absolutely does as it’s something special and every Australian and England player dreams to play a part in.
It draws everyone in, even non-cricket lovers, it’s just something special. An Ashes series captures everyone’s imagination for six weeks.
But have the Ashes been close? Let’s take a forensic look.
Whilst recent Ashes series have given us so many unforgettable “I was there” moments, both in Australia and England, there’s a stat which stands out.
In the 35 years that have passed since Mike Gatting captained England to a series victory in Australia in 1986/87, England have won just one series of eight in Australia and only six of 41 Tests.
Three of those six wins came in that one series in 2010-11, which was also the only series win. So outside of that, in 35 years, England has won just three of 36 Tests in Australia. Comparatively, across the same time period Australia has a 21-16 win-loss record in England, including four series wins. Australia has really dominated England.
This year, I think that changes. I think England has a chance to win the Ashes. Playing Australia in Australia, over that 35 year period, has generally been the hardest tour in cricket, until recently.
Look at the last three years, Australia has lost two out of three series. Last year they lost to the Indian “C” team – India are now the Aussies of the 1990s with their depth - after bowling India out for 36 in the first Test.
They lost in Melbourne, should have lost in Sydney. India would have chased over 300 to win, Australia couldn’t bowl them out.
Then in the last Test, after Tim Paine had given it to the Indian players, telling them “wait until we get to the Gabba, we don’t lose there, we are going to destroy you”, they chased over 300 again. They were fearless.
Every team in the world took notice, and now come to Australia with a different mindset.
That is - no team fears playing Australia in Australia anymore. That’s why England believe they can win rather than thinking, as they have in the past, that if they play at their best, they can compete. Don’t underestimate that mindset shift. It rubs off in the group in their training preparations. It keeps the squad upbeat
I’ve seen all sorts of talks about living and playing in bubbles and the toll it could take. We all thank the players for doing that. It’s not easy. But Australia hasn’t played a Test since January, they haven’t been in those bubbles together.
The England players have, they’ve played home series against New Zealand and India this year, and it has galvanised them.
They have played so much cricket, done it tough, and they have grown tighter and are a hardened unit.
Combine that with a lack of fear of playing Australia at home, especially after what India did last summer, a lack of Tests for Australia, and England arrived full of confidence.
MY AUSTRALIAN TEAM
When picking my first XI for the opening Test at the Gabba, the biggest change I would make would be sending Mitchell Starc back to first class cricket to find some form. At his best he’s an automatic choice, but at the moment he’s way short of his best.
He’s not swinging the ball and his pace is nowhere near what it should be. The evidence was seen at the World Cup. This is not a personal attack, he’s just bowling poorly and he has done so for the last couple of years.
Take a look at his stats from last summer as an example. Bowling against the top five for India, Starc averaged 63.8 runs per wicket. Against the top six it was 57.66.
The first Test is so important. You can’t say “let’s see how he goes”. I would be playing Jhye Richardson. The ideal person is someone with extreme pace, or can swing it someone different to back up Josh Hazlewood and Pat Cummins and their relentless line and length seam bowling.
I know people think I have a love affair with Riley Meredith, but if you are looking for the fastest bowler in Australia, it’s him.
So let’s hope Riley Meredith can find some form, stay injury free and push for Test selection.
Marcus Harris opens. It would have been a backwards step to go to Usman Khawaja, so Travis Head bats at number five. I would’ve liked Mitch Marsh at number five, and as vice-captain.
Now that Tim Paine has stepped away from the game to spend time with his family, there will be a new keeper for the first Test. The candidates are - Jimmy Peirson, Josh Inglis, Matthew Wade and Alex Carey. As I’ve said previously, Josh Inglis gets my vote.
The rest, David Warner, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith and the three bowlers, outside of Mitchell Starc, pick themselves, although Nathan Lyon had a terrible series last year and needs to find some form and deliver on the final day when the team needs him most. When Lyon attacks he’s terrific and when he goes defensive and just tries to hold up an end, he has no impact on the final day of a Test.
In his 100 Test career he averages 42.19 to the top five and last series that was 63.33. To the top six his career bowling average is 40.77 and last summer it was 68.
Starc and Lyon weren’t a factor last summer even with huge scores India had to chase in favourable bowling conditions. That’s why Australia struggled. Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood was superb, but Australia only had two effective bowlers. Let’s hope Mitch Swepson, the young leggie from Queensland pushed hard for selection with some bags of wickets so Australia has another option if Lyon’s form continues to slide. MY ENGLAND TEAM England has a couple of things they need to work on. They have to play a spinner, and Joe Root has to back that spinner. Think back to the only series England have won in Australia in 35 years, Graeme Swann bowled beautifully on flat tracks with the old ball under the hot sun. Jack Leach needs to do the same.
You can’t win in Australia if you don’t have a spinner who can hold up an end and allow the quicks to rotate, whilst still having an impact.
But their fast bowlers have to find a way to take wickets with the new and old Kookaburra ball.
Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad have been part of the last five Ashes in Australia and together have really struggled to have an impact. We know they are class, but they haven’t had an influence in Australia and the stats back it up.
Jimmy Anderson has played 18 Tests in Australia, and averages nearly 36 with the ball. Stuart Broad has played in 12 and averages 37.
Breaking it down even further, Anderson against top five batters has 30 wickets at 47.43, Broad to the top five batters has 18 wickets at 46.16.
That’s your two strike bowlers. They need to be better.
The reason England haven’t found a way to win in Australia is that their main bowlers haven’t performed well, they just haven’t found a way to take wickets when the ball gets old. Plus they need to post big first innings scores.
Jofra Archer is a huge loss for them, he’s that missing piece, that something different as the third seamer, raw pace with an old ball, on a flat wicket. Those types of bowlers are rare. Merv Hughes was the best I saw along with Wasim Akram. Generally they don’t last long either. It’s such a shame he’s not coming. England’s batting needs a closer inspection. They have a young quality player in Zac Crawley whose game is perfect for Australian conditions. He has to open with Rory Burns who has a bit of fight about him and is a good partner.
The inclusion of Dawid Malan is a good one, he’s played well in Australia. Then you have Joe Root, Jonny Bairstow, Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler. From four to seven England are very dangerous.
I saw Joe Root play in England this year and he’s in the form of his life and will want to tick off some big scores in Australia where he hasn’t really performed. He looks hungry to me and will play a huge part. He’s one of those captains that inspires by performances. So England have batting firepower, and their success or failure could come down to their ability to take 20 wickets.
No team fears playing Australia in Australia anymore. Shane Warne